The School of Odds

Avai v Nautico PE

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC

Final: Avai 2–0 Nautico PE

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Avai (Local)

Prediction 39.39%2.54fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.614%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.05%39.34%39.45%41.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.342.352.5046.51%42.65%42.46%40.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Nautico PE (Visit)

Prediction 31.29%3.20fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -0.965%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.32%31.38%31.37%33.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.923.1036.36%34.12%34.31%32.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.32%3.41fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -0.982%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.74%29.28%29.18%30.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.103.3034.48%32.27%32.26%30.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -1.54%E -0.614%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -12.38%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 18:39
BetUS2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -3.50%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 18:54
Unibet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 18:55
Unibet (NL)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 18:54
Unibet (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 18:54
Casumo2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 18:54
betPARX2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 18:54
ATG (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 18:54
Svenska Spel2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 18:54
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 18:54
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 18:54
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 18:54
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-12 18:54
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -13.94%E -5.07%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-12 18:39
Betway2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -6.26%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -4.71%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 18:54
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -6.26%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -6.75%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:54
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%EV -6.26%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -6.75%E -2.26%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:54
LowVig.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -7.05%E -2.99%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -2.99%E -0.965%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 18:54
BetOnline.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 39.83%EV -7.05%E -2.99%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -2.99%E -0.965%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 18:54
Codere (IT)2.36I 42.37%NM 38.85%EV -7.05%E -2.99%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.08%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.06%EV -10.57%E -3.47%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-12 18:54
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -7.44%E -3.17%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -4.56%E -1.49%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -4.71%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 18:54
Unibet (UK)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.44%E -3.17%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 18:55
Marathon Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.44%E -3.17%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.55%EV -8.00%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:54
Bovada2.35I 42.55%NM 39.25%EV -7.44%E -3.17%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.48%EV -8.31%E -2.84%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-12 18:53
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -7.44%E -3.17%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-12 18:54
BetRivers2.35I 42.55%NM 38.75%EV -7.44%E -3.17%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -10.57%E -3.47%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-12 18:54
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -7.44%E -3.17%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-12 18:54
Pinnacle2.33I 42.92%NM 40.07%EV -8.23%E -3.53%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.02%EV -5.81%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.91%EV -5.29%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 18:50
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.41%E -4.09%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.38%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-12 18:54
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 38.85%EV -9.41%E -4.09%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.36%EV -10.82%E -3.79%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-12 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.66%EV -9.41%E -4.09%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.20%EV -10.82%E -3.79%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.14%EV -13.50%E -4.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-12 18:54
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -10.20%E -4.47%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.82%E -3.79%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.04%EV -13.50%E -4.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-12 18:54
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -11.38%E -5.06%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -4.56%E -1.49%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -3.24%E -0.982%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 18:55
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -11.38%E -5.06%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -3.24%E -0.982%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-12 18:54
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -11.38%E -5.06%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -12.38%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -4.71%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-12 18:54
betano_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.05%EV -11.38%E -5.06%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.88%EV -8.52%E -2.73%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 18:53
LiveScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 38.77%EV -11.38%E -5.06%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.15%EV -12.38%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.08%EV -14.97%E -5.16%K -7.88%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-12 18:54
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 38.77%EV -11.38%E -5.06%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.15%EV -12.38%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.08%EV -14.97%E -5.16%K -7.88%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-12 18:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -13.35%E -6.07%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 18:54
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -15.32%E -7.13%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-12 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-07-12 18:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-07-12 18:55
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%1.2%2026-07-12 18:54
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%1.2%2026-07-12 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.06%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-07-12 18:54