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Atletico Goianiense v Athletic Club (MG)
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atletico Goianiense (Local)
Prediction 43.85%2.28fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%44.35%43.57%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.042.082.2554.05%48.92%48.19%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Prediction 26.30%3.80fair odd
EV +13.89%
Edge +3.21%
Kelly +4.17%
Growth +0.579%
assuming max odds 4.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.90%25.95%26.41%28.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.643.504.3330.77%27.49%28.57%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.85%3.35fair odd
EV -0.015%
Edge -0.004%
Kelly -0.006%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.43%29.70%30.03%31.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.083.053.3534.48%32.43%32.79%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Goianiense (Local): 43.85%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 26.30%; Draw: 29.85%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.93%EV -18.87%E -10.20%K -22.20%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV +13.89%E +3.21%K +4.17%G +0.579% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-15 06:33 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.93%EV -18.87%E -10.20%K -22.20%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV +13.89%E +3.21%K +4.17%G +0.579% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-15 06:34 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.93%EV -18.87%E -10.20%K -22.20%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV +13.89%E +3.21%K +4.17%G +0.579% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-15 06:34 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.93%EV -18.87%E -10.20%K -22.20%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV +13.89%E +3.21%K +4.17%G +0.579% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-15 06:34 |
| Unibet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.42%EV -14.05%E -7.17%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV +3.89%E +0.985%K +1.32%G +0.051% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.55%EV -14.49%E -7.43%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV +3.89%E +0.985%K +1.32%G +0.051% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.55%EV -14.49%E -7.43%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV +3.89%E +0.985%K +1.32%G +0.051% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| Casumo | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.55%EV -14.49%E -7.43%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV +3.89%E +0.985%K +1.32%G +0.051% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| betPARX | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.55%EV -14.49%E -7.43%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV +3.89%E +0.985%K +1.32%G +0.051% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.55%EV -14.49%E -7.43%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV +3.89%E +0.985%K +1.32%G +0.051% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.55%EV -14.49%E -7.43%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV +3.89%E +0.985%K +1.32%G +0.051% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| BetMGM | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -14.49%E -7.43%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV +2.58%E +0.661%K +0.889%G +0.023% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-18 20:35 |
| BetRivers | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.30%EV -15.37%E -7.96%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.71%EV +1.26%E +0.328%K +0.443%G +0.006% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.98%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| Grosvenor | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.31%EV -17.12%E -9.06%K -19.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -1.37%E -0.365%K -0.498%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.22%EV -17.56%E -9.34%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -1.37%E -0.365%K -0.498%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| TABtouch | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.22%EV -17.56%E -9.34%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -1.37%E -0.365%K -0.498%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.11%EV -18.44%E -9.91%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -2.68%E -0.725%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.11%EV -18.44%E -9.91%K -21.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -2.68%E -0.725%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-18 20:25 |
| SportsBet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -7.03%E -3.32%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -5.31%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Coolbet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -7.03%E -3.32%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.31%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| FanDuel | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.91%E -3.77%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -5.31%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| NordicBet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -5.72%E -2.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Betsson | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -5.72%E -2.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-18 20:54 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -5.72%E -2.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.91%E -3.77%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Paddy Power | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -10.10%E -4.93%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| BoyleSports | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -12.30%E -6.15%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.94%E -2.27%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-18 20:49 |
| 1xBet | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.86%EV -2.21%E -0.991%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.82%EV -8.47%E -2.43%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.32%EV -11.06%E -3.71%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.97%EV -6.60%E -3.10%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -9.26%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| DraftKings | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.53%E -1.60%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-18 20:45 |
| Betway | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -5.72%E -2.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.03%E -3.32%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -13.61%E -6.91%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -1.51%E -0.457%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| betfred_uk | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.10%E -4.93%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.57%E -3.11%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.93%EV -1.77%E -0.791%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.37%EV -10.84%E -3.20%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.70%EV -0.015%E -0.004%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| BetUS | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -1.33%E -0.592%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -11.89%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| PlayUp | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -7.03%E -3.32%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -11.89%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-18 20:50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.04%EV -1.77%E -0.791%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.04%EV -1.77%E -0.791%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Bovada | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.74%EV -5.28%E -2.44%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -14.52%E -4.47%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-18 20:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -5.72%E -2.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -14.52%E -4.47%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -13.45%E -4.64%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Neds | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -5.72%E -2.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -14.52%E -4.47%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -13.45%E -4.64%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -5.72%E -2.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -14.52%E -4.47%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -13.45%E -4.64%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Coral | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -5.72%E -2.66%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -14.52%E -4.47%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -13.45%E -4.64%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.60% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.60% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.60% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00% | 0.6% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89% | 1.0% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |
| Smarkets | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29% | 1.0% | 2026-07-18 20:55 |