L’École des cotes

Athletic Club (MG) v Avai

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-28 19:00 UTC

Score final : Athletic Club (MG) 1–0 Avai

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

46 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Athletic Club (MG) (Local)

Prévision 48.45%2.06cote équitable
EV -3.11%
Avantage -1.55%
Kelly -3.11%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
45.49%48.40%48.48%51.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.751.901.922.0057.14%52.52%52.22%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Avai (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.42%4.46cote équitable
EV +2.03%
Avantage +0.445%
Kelly +0.571%
Croissance +0.012%

avec la cote maximale 4.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.09%22.45%22.36%25.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.554.004.004.5528.17%25.01%25.00%21.98%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 29.13%3.43cote équitable
EV -3.87%
Avantage -1.17%
Kelly -1.68%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.01%29.16%29.16%30.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.143.153.3035.71%31.82%31.75%30.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (46 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -4.56%E -2.31%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.11%EV +2.03%E +0.445%K +0.571%G +0.012%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.12%EV -7.07%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-28 18:50
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -15.22%E -8.70%K -20.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV +0.904%E +0.201%K +0.258%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-28 18:30
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.70%EV -5.53%E -2.84%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -3.58%E -0.833%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-28 18:40
BetUS1.93I 51.81%NM 48.51%EV -6.50%E -3.37%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -3.58%E -0.833%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-28 18:39
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.25%EV -6.50%E -3.37%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -4.70%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.84%EV -9.11%E -2.92%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-28 18:50
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.53%E -2.84%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-28 18:49
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -5.04%E -2.57%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-28 18:49
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -5.04%E -2.57%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-28 18:49
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.83%EV -6.98%E -3.64%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-28 18:29
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.47%E -3.91%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-28 18:29
Bovada1.93I 51.81%NM 47.79%EV -6.50%E -3.37%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%EV -11.15%E -3.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-28 18:48
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -5.53%E -2.84%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-28 18:49
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.26%EV -6.98%E -3.64%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.33%EV -6.94%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-28 18:30
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.26%EV -6.98%E -3.64%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.33%EV -6.94%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-28 18:30
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.04%EV -7.95%E -4.19%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.07%E -1.97%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-28 18:39
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -9.41%E -5.03%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -8.07%E -1.97%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-28 18:39
Codere (IT)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -7.47%E -3.91%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -8.07%E -1.97%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-28 18:29
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.47%E -3.91%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-28 18:30
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.47%E -3.91%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-28 18:29
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.53%E -2.84%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-28 18:39
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.53%E -2.84%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-28 18:39
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.53%E -2.84%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-28 18:40
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -9.41%E -5.03%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-28 18:29
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -10.37%E -5.61%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-28 18:29
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -11.34%E -6.20%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-28 18:30
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -11.34%E -6.20%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-28 18:29
Unibet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -5.53%E -2.84%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-28 18:49
Unibet (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -6.01%E -3.10%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 18:49
Unibet (NL)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -6.01%E -3.10%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 18:49
Casumo1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -6.01%E -3.10%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 18:50
betPARX1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -6.01%E -3.10%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 18:49
Svenska Spel1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -6.01%E -3.10%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 18:49
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -6.01%E -3.10%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-28 18:49
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 47.82%EV -10.37%E -5.61%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-28 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 47.82%EV -10.37%E -5.61%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-28 18:30
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 47.82%EV -10.37%E -5.61%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-28 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 47.82%EV -10.37%E -5.61%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-28 18:29
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -7.95%E -4.19%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -13.67%E -3.55%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-28 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.69%EV -11.34%E -6.20%K -13.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.79%EV -15.91%E -4.24%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -18.44%E -6.58%K -10.24%G +0.000%17.0%2026-06-28 18:29
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 47.51%EV -8.92%E -4.74%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -17.03%E -4.60%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.0%2026-06-28 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 47.29%EV -8.92%E -4.74%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -17.03%E -4.60%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.68%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.5%2026-06-28 18:49
TABtouch1.87I 53.48%NM 47.27%EV -9.41%E -5.03%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -18.16%E -4.97%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000%13.1%2026-06-28 18:49
Virgin Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.32%EV -10.37%E -5.61%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.98%EV -18.16%E -4.97%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.15%E -3.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.2%2026-06-28 18:50
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 47.32%EV -10.37%E -5.61%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.98%EV -18.16%E -4.97%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.15%E -3.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.2%2026-06-28 18:49
LiveScore Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.32%EV -10.37%E -5.61%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.98%EV -18.16%E -4.97%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.15%E -3.66%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.2%2026-06-28 18:49
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 45.49%EV -3.11%E -1.55%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -20.40%E -5.75%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -8.24%E -2.62%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-28 18:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.99I 50.25%NM 49.57%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%1.4%2026-06-28 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.57%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%1.4%2026-06-28 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.57%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%1.4%2026-06-28 18:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.57%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%1.4%2026-06-28 18:50
Smarkets1.97I 50.76%NM 49.60%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.16%2.4%2026-06-28 18:50