The School of Odds

Vitoria v Vasco da Gama

2026-07-22 20:00 — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Vitoria (Local)

Odds
2.1546.51%Min
2.3542.50%Mean
2.4141.49%Median
2.4840.32%Max
Consensus probabilities
37.58%2.661Min
39.37%2.540Max
38.63%2.589Mean
38.69%2.584Median
38.69%2.584IQM
38.61%2.590Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.48 under the IQM model: 38.69%

EV -4.04%Edge -1.63%Kelly -2.73%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Odds
2.5539.22%Min
2.8235.42%Mean
2.8734.84%Median
3.0033.33%Max
Consensus probabilities
31.33%3.192Min
33.11%3.020Max
32.11%3.114Mean
32.13%3.112Median
32.13%3.112IQM
32.12%3.113Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.00 under the IQM model: 32.13%

EV -3.60%Edge -1.20%Kelly -1.80%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
2.7037.04%Min
3.0932.36%Mean
3.1032.26%Median
3.3030.30%Max
Consensus probabilities
27.94%3.579Min
30.62%3.266Max
29.26%3.418Mean
29.17%3.428Median
29.17%3.428IQM
29.26%3.417Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.30 under the IQM model: 29.17%

EV -3.73%Edge -1.13%Kelly -1.62%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerVitoria (Local) ▼Vasco da Gama (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.48I 40.32% NM 38.71%EV -4.04% E -1.63% K -2.73% G +0.000%2.99I 33.44% NM 32.11%EV -3.92% E -1.31% K -1.97% G +0.000%3.29I 30.40% NM 29.18%EV -4.03% E -1.22% K -1.76% G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-05 14:47
SportsBet2.45I 40.82% NM 38.52%EV -5.20% E -2.12% K -3.58% G +0.000%2.87I 34.84% NM 32.88%EV -7.78% E -2.71% K -4.16% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.60%EV -3.73% E -1.13% K -1.62% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-05 14:49
FanDuel2.45I 40.82% NM 38.43%EV -5.20% E -2.12% K -3.58% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.04%EV -8.42% E -2.95% K -4.55% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 28.53%EV -3.73% E -1.13% K -1.62% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-05 14:48
BetMGM2.45I 40.82% NM 38.36%EV -5.20% E -2.12% K -3.58% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.33%EV -3.60% E -1.20% K -1.80% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.32%EV -9.57% E -3.09% K -4.56% G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-05 14:50
Coral2.45I 40.82% NM 38.36%EV -5.20% E -2.12% K -3.58% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.33%EV -3.60% E -1.20% K -1.80% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.32%EV -9.57% E -3.09% K -4.56% G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-05 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82% NM 38.36%EV -5.20% E -2.12% K -3.58% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.33%EV -3.60% E -1.20% K -1.80% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.32%EV -9.57% E -3.09% K -4.56% G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-05 14:50
Neds2.45I 40.82% NM 38.36%EV -5.20% E -2.12% K -3.58% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.33%EV -3.60% E -1.20% K -1.80% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.32%EV -9.57% E -3.09% K -4.56% G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-05 14:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82% NM 38.36%EV -5.20% E -2.12% K -3.58% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.33%EV -3.60% E -1.20% K -1.80% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.32%EV -9.57% E -3.09% K -4.56% G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-05 14:49
Marathon Bet2.41I 41.49% NM 38.74%EV -6.75% E -2.80% K -4.78% G +0.000%2.91I 34.36% NM 32.08%EV -6.49% E -2.23% K -3.40% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.18%EV -6.65% E -2.08% K -3.02% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-05 14:48
Codere (IT)2.38I 42.02% NM 38.99%EV -7.91% E -3.32% K -5.73% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.00%EV -6.81% E -2.35% K -3.59% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.00%EV -6.65% E -2.08% K -3.02% G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 14:50
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02% NM 37.98%EV -7.91% E -3.32% K -5.73% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 32.87%EV -11.63% E -4.23% K -6.65% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.16%EV -9.57% E -3.09% K -4.56% G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-05 14:49
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48% NM 37.86%EV -11.00% E -4.78% K -8.46% G +0.000%2.63I 38.02% NM 33.11%EV -15.49% E -5.89% K -9.50% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 29.03%EV -12.49% E -4.16% K -6.24% G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-05 14:49
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45% NM 39.37%EV -14.87% E -6.76% K -12.39% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 32.69%EV -14.85% E -5.60% K -9.00% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 27.94%EV -9.57% E -3.09% K -4.56% G +0.000%15.4%2026-06-05 14:50
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45% NM 38.82%EV -14.87% E -6.76% K -12.39% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 32.23%EV -14.85% E -5.60% K -9.00% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 28.95%EV -13.94% E -4.73% K -7.15% G +0.000%17.1%2026-06-05 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45% NM 37.58%EV -14.87% E -6.76% K -12.39% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 31.80%EV -16.45% E -6.33% K -10.28% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 30.62%EV -21.24% E -7.87% K -12.49% G +0.000%21.0%2026-06-05 15:19
Betclic (FR)2.15I 46.51% NM 39.37%EV -16.81% E -7.82% K -14.61% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 31.94%EV -14.85% E -5.60% K -9.00% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 28.69%EV -13.94% E -4.73% K -7.15% G +0.000%18.1%2026-06-05 14:45
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51% NM 38.88%EV -16.81% E -7.82% K -14.61% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 32.78%EV -18.06% E -7.08% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 28.34%EV -13.94% E -4.73% K -7.15% G +0.000%19.6%2026-06-05 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth