Vitoria v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

39%

32%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Vitoria (Local)

Prediction 38.69%2.58fair odd

EV -4.04%

Edge -1.63%

Kelly -2.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.58%38.63%38.69%39.37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.152.352.412.4847%43%41%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 32.13%3.11fair odd

EV -3.60%

Edge -1.20%

Kelly -1.80%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.33%32.11%32.13%33.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.552.822.873.0039%35%35%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.17%3.43fair odd

EV -3.73%

Edge -1.13%

Kelly -1.62%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.94%29.26%29.17%30.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.703.093.103.3037%32%32%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.71%EV -4.04%E -1.63%K -2.73%G +0.000%	2.99I 33.44%NM 32.11%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%	3.29I 30.40%NM 29.18%EV -4.03%E -1.22%K -1.76%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-05 14:47
SportsBet	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -5.20%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.88%EV -7.78%E -2.71%K -4.16%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.73%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-05 14:49
FanDuel	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -5.20%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -8.42%E -2.95%K -4.55%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.73%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-06-05 14:48
BetMGM	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.20%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.57%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-05 14:50
Coral	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.20%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.57%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-05 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.20%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.57%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-05 14:50
Neds	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.20%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.57%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-05 14:49
Ladbrokes (UK)	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -5.20%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -3.60%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -9.57%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-05 14:49
Marathon Bet	2.41I 41.49%NM 38.74%EV -6.75%E -2.80%K -4.78%G +0.000%	2.91I 34.36%NM 32.08%EV -6.49%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -6.65%E -2.08%K -3.02%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-06-05 14:48
Codere (IT)	2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -7.91%E -3.32%K -5.73%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -6.81%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -6.65%E -2.08%K -3.02%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-05 14:50
Paddy Power	2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -7.91%E -3.32%K -5.73%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -11.63%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -9.57%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-06-05 14:49
Sky Bet	2.30I 43.48%NM 37.86%EV -11.00%E -4.78%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 33.11%EV -15.49%E -5.89%K -9.50%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -12.49%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000%	14.8%	2026-06-05 14:49
Winamax (DE)	2.20I 45.45%NM 39.37%EV -14.87%E -6.76%K -12.39%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 32.69%EV -14.85%E -5.60%K -9.00%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.94%EV -9.57%E -3.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%	15.4%	2026-06-05 14:50
Unibet (FR)	2.20I 45.45%NM 38.82%EV -14.87%E -6.76%K -12.39%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 32.23%EV -14.85%E -5.60%K -9.00%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 28.95%EV -13.94%E -4.73%K -7.15%G +0.000%	17.1%	2026-06-05 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	2.20I 45.45%NM 37.58%EV -14.87%E -6.76%K -12.39%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 31.80%EV -16.45%E -6.33%K -10.28%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 30.62%EV -21.24%E -7.87%K -12.49%G +0.000%	21.0%	2026-06-05 15:19
Betclic (FR)	2.15I 46.51%NM 39.37%EV -16.81%E -7.82%K -14.61%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 31.94%EV -14.85%E -5.60%K -9.00%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 28.69%EV -13.94%E -4.73%K -7.15%G +0.000%	18.1%	2026-06-05 14:45
Winamax (FR)	2.15I 46.51%NM 38.88%EV -16.81%E -7.82%K -14.61%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 32.78%EV -18.06%E -7.08%K -11.65%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 28.34%EV -13.94%E -4.73%K -7.15%G +0.000%	19.6%	2026-06-05 14:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.