L’École des cotes

Vitoria v Sao Paulo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-11 19:34 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Vitoria (Local)

Prévision 31.43%3.18cote équitable
EV +2.15%
Avantage +0.660%
Kelly +0.954%
Croissance +0.020%

avec la cote maximale 3.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.74%31.61%31.39%34.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.552.993.003.2539.22%33.40%33.33%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Sao Paulo (Visiteur)

Prévision 37.39%2.67cote équitable
EV -2.77%
Avantage -1.07%
Kelly -1.73%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.38%37.31%37.40%39.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.252.452.502.6044.44%40.80%40.00%38.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 31.18%3.21cote équitable
EV -0.238%
Avantage -0.074%
Kelly -0.108%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.60%31.08%31.22%32.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.633.013.003.2038.02%33.20%33.33%31.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.65%EV -6.14%E -2.45%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.50%EV -3.98%E -1.29%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 19:29
ATG (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.89%EV -9.13%E -3.76%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -0.238%E -0.074%K -0.108%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 19:30
Svenska Spel3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV +2.15%E +0.660%K +0.954%G +0.020%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.89%EV -9.13%E -3.76%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -0.238%E -0.074%K -0.108%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 19:30
TABtouch3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV +0.575%E +0.180%K +0.261%G +0.002%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.81%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.33%EV -1.80%E -0.570%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-11 19:30
LowVig.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 19:29
BetOnline.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 19:29
BetAnything3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 19:29
Unibet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 19:30
Unibet (NL)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 19:30
Unibet (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 19:30
Casumo3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 19:30
Grosvenor3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 19:30
betPARX3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 19:30
BetRivers3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -0.997%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:16
Coolbet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.77%EV -2.57%E -0.828%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.94%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -1.80%E -0.570%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 19:28
LeoVegas3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -2.57%E -0.828%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.86%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.91%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -2.57%E -0.828%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.86%EV -13.24%E -5.71%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.91%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 19:30
GTbets3.09I 32.36%NM 30.99%EV -2.88%E -0.933%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -7.26%E -2.93%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.40%EV -1.80%E -0.570%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-11 19:29
Pinnacle3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -3.20%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -2.77%E -1.07%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -3.98%E -1.29%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 19:29
BetUS3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 19:29
PMU (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -14.74%E -6.47%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 19:30
Codere (IT)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -4.91%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 19:30
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -4.91%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 19:27
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:30
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:29
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:29
Bet Victor3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:28
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:29
PlayUp3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 19:29
LiveScore Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.80%EV -15.86%E -7.05%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 19:30
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.80%EV -15.86%E -7.05%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-11 19:30
NordicBet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -6.34%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -5.77%E -2.29%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -7.10%E -2.38%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 19:30
Betsson2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -6.34%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -5.77%E -2.29%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -7.10%E -2.38%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 19:30
Marathon Bet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.33%EV -6.34%E -2.13%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.33%EV -7.10%E -2.38%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 19:29
BetMGM2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 19:30
Tipico (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:29
Coral2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:30
Neds2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:29
Ladbrokes (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -3.36%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 19:30
Bet Right2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -4.91%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 19:29
Betway2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -2.77%E -1.07%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 19:29
PointsBet (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 19:29
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 19:29
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 19:29
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 19:29
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 19:29
Unibet (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -13.99%E -6.08%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 19:29
BoyleSports2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 19:30
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.21%E -3.55%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 19:30
Betclic (FR)2.87I 34.84%NM 31.14%EV -9.80%E -3.41%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.03%EV -12.12%E -5.16%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.82%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 19:29
Betr (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -10.43%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.51%E -2.61%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -4.91%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 19:29
Sky Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -10.21%E -3.55%K -5.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.47%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.09%EV -13.99%E -6.08%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.44%EV -18.01%E -6.85%K -11.05%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-11 19:30
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -15.14%E -5.61%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -2.77%E -1.07%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -1.80%E -0.570%K -0.836%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:30
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.04%EV -16.71%E -6.31%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.38%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.58%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 19:30
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.25%EV -19.85%E -7.79%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.64%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -9.59%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-11 19:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.56%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.07%0.6%2026-04-11 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.56%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.07%0.6%2026-04-11 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.56%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.07%0.6%2026-04-11 19:30
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.18%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%1.9%2026-04-11 19:30
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.36%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%2.2%2026-04-11 19:30
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 30.79%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.79%4.1%2026-04-11 19:30