L’École des cotes

Vasco da Gama v Palmeiras

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-12 22:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prévision 31.21%3.20cote équitable
EV -0.114%
Avantage -0.036%
Kelly -0.052%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.41%31.02%31.38%32.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.753.013.003.2036.36%33.27%33.33%31.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Palmeiras (Visiteur)

Prévision 39.66%2.52cote équitable
EV -2.42%
Avantage -0.986%
Kelly -1.66%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.46

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.85%39.80%39.65%42.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.312.302.4647.62%43.28%43.48%40.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 29.12%3.43cote équitable
EV +2.51%
Avantage +0.712%
Kelly +0.994%
Croissance +0.025%

avec la cote maximale 3.52

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.98%29.18%28.97%30.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.183.203.5235.71%31.42%31.25%28.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.39%EV -11.15%E -4.98%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.98%EV +2.51%E +0.712%K +0.994%G +0.025%5.3%2026-03-12 22:25
ATG (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 30.15%EV -0.114%E -0.036%K -0.052%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.05%EV -6.79%E -2.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.80%EV -2.44%E -0.730%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 22:15
Svenska Spel3.20I 31.25%NM 30.15%EV -0.114%E -0.036%K -0.052%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.05%EV -6.79%E -2.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.80%EV -2.44%E -0.730%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 22:15
Coolbet3.03I 33.00%NM 31.44%EV -5.42%E -1.79%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.69%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 11:29
LowVig.ag3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -0.114%E -0.036%K -0.052%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:25
BetOnline.ag3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -0.114%E -0.036%K -0.052%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:25
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 22:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -9.48%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.90%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:15
Pinnacle3.12I 32.05%NM 31.00%EV -2.61%E -0.837%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.32%EV -2.42%E -0.986%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.67%EV -5.07%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 22:20
Codere (IT)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 22:00
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 22:25
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 21:50
Bet Victor3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.60%E -2.35%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 22:25
BetMGM2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -7.92%E -2.68%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 22:25
Unibet (NL)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
BetRivers3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:10
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Unibet (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Unibet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Bet Right2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.92%E -2.68%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.79%E -2.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 22:20
PointsBet (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.92%E -2.68%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.79%E -2.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 22:20
GTbets3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.38%EV -4.01%E -1.66%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.69%EV -6.52%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 22:00
SportsBet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 22:20
Neds2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.92%E -2.68%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -7.92%E -2.68%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 22:25
Betr (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -9.48%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -6.79%E -2.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-12 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -4.80%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -10.75%E -4.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 22:15
LeoVegas3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -4.80%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.19%EV -11.55%E -5.18%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-12 22:10
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.48%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-12 22:20
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.48%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-12 22:20
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.48%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-12 22:20
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.48%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-12 22:20
Winamax (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -11.04%E -3.87%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -6.81%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-12 22:00
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -8.27%E -2.62%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 22:25
Betsson3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -1.68%E -0.532%K -0.779%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -8.27%E -2.62%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-12 22:25
NordicBet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -1.68%E -0.532%K -0.779%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.86%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -8.27%E -2.62%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-12 22:25
TABtouch3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -12.74%E -5.79%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -8.27%E -2.62%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-12 22:15
LiveScore Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -13.53%E -6.21%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.27%E -2.62%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-12 22:15
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.34%EV -13.53%E -6.21%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -8.27%E -2.62%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-12 22:15
Bovada3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -4.80%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.32%EV -5.60%E -2.35%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.00%EV -9.14%E -2.93%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:24
BetUS3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -4.80%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.32%EV -5.60%E -2.35%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.00%EV -9.14%E -2.93%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:25
BetAnything3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -4.80%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.32%EV -5.60%E -2.35%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.00%EV -9.14%E -2.93%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:25
Marathon Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -4.80%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.52%EV -6.39%E -2.71%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -9.14%E -2.93%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 22:25
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.79%E -2.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-12 22:19
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.80%E -2.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-12 21:50
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 22:25
PlayUp3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -3.24%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%EV -9.56%E -4.19%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-12 22:25
BoyleSports2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -10.10%E -3.51%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-12 21:50
Parions Sport (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.60%E -4.50%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -10.75%E -4.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-12 22:05
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.88%EV -14.16%E -5.15%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.85%EV -12.74%E -5.79%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -9.72%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-12 22:00
Betclic (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.33%EV -11.04%E -3.87%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -10.75%E -4.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.99%EV -10.31%E -3.35%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-12 22:09
Fliff2.90I 34.48%NM 30.87%EV -9.48%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.78%EV -10.75%E -4.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -11.18%E -3.67%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-12 22:20
Unibet (FR)2.82I 35.46%NM 31.07%EV -11.98%E -4.25%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.20%EV -13.53%E -6.21%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.73%EV -11.18%E -3.67%K -5.45%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-12 22:25
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.36%E -2.12%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.77%E -3.81%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-12 22:20
Sky Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -9.48%E -3.27%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.75%E -4.78%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-12 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -10.10%E -3.51%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -16.70%E -7.95%K -15.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -18.46%E -6.59%K -10.26%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-12 22:19
PMU (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 30.38%EV -14.16%E -5.15%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 39.78%EV -16.70%E -7.95%K -15.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.84%EV -18.46%E -6.59%K -10.26%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-12 22:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%0.2%2026-03-12 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%0.2%2026-03-12 22:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%0.2%2026-03-12 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%0.2%2026-03-12 22:20
Kalshi3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.61%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.74%1.0%2026-03-12 22:20
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.77%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.89%1.4%2026-03-12 22:20