Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama v Atletico Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-05-31 19:00 UTC

Final: Vasco da Gama 0–1 Atletico Mineiro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 48.67%2.05fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.832%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.33%48.59%48.68%49.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.921.932.0254.64%52.00%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 23.97%4.17fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.276%
Kelly +0.361%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.55%24.02%23.90%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.873.904.2228.99%25.86%25.64%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.35%3.66fair odd
EV -0.976%
Edge -0.269%
Kelly -0.372%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.36%27.39%27.42%29.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.373.403.6234.72%29.65%29.41%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 48.67%; Atletico Mineiro (Visit): 23.97%; Draw: 27.35%. For Atletico Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.30%EV -6.06%E -3.14%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.55%EV +1.16%E +0.276%K +0.361%G +0.004%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.15%EV -7.54%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 18:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.07%EV -5.57%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -0.514%E -0.124%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 18:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.07%EV -5.57%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -0.514%E -0.124%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 18:30
BetAnything🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.07%EV -5.57%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.94%EV -0.514%E -0.124%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 18:30
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.53%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.50%EV -1.47%E -0.358%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.98%EV -2.07%E -0.578%K -0.802%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-31 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%EV -1.68%E -0.832%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -1.71%E -0.418%K -0.553%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-31 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%EV -1.68%E -0.832%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -1.71%E -0.418%K -0.553%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-31 18:30
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-31 18:50
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-31 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-31 18:50
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 18:50
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-31 18:30
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.05%EV -4.60%E -2.35%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 18:30
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 18:40
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 18:30
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -6.06%E -3.14%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-31 18:40
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -6.55%E -3.41%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-31 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -6.55%E -3.41%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -5.31%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-31 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.66%EV -5.55%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.26%EV -6.45%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-31 18:50
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 18:50
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 18:50
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-31 18:48
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-31 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -6.55%E -3.41%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-31 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-31 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -11.10%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-31 18:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.46%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-31 18:30
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.50%E -4.52%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -11.10%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-31 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.50%E -4.52%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -11.10%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-31 18:40
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.98%EV -1.68%E -0.832%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.24%EV -7.95%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.78%EV -0.976%E -0.269%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-31 18:50
GTbets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.83%EV -3.63%E -1.83%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.79%EV -8.43%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.37%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-31 06:51
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-31 18:30
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -6.55%E -3.41%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-31 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -7.52%E -3.96%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:30
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-31 18:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-31 18:30
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-31 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -12.46%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-31 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -8.90%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -12.46%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-31 18:30
Neds🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.08%EV -5.57%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.08%EV -5.57%E -2.87%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-31 18:10
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.04%E -3.68%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-31 18:30
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.81%EV -8.98%E -4.80%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -10.10%E -2.69%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-31 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.45%EV -9.47%E -5.09%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.49%EV -11.78%E -3.20%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.06%EV -8.91%E -2.68%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-31 18:37
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-31 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.09%E -2.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-31 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -8.50%E -4.52%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-31 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-31 18:39
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -9.96%E -5.38%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -12.46%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-31 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.33%EV -10.93%E -5.97%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.23%EV -16.10%E -4.60%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.44%EV -21.22%E -7.37%K -11.29%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-31 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.83%EV -10.44%E -5.68%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -17.30%E -5.01%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-31 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.43%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.35%0.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.43%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.35%0.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.43%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.35%0.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.16%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-05-31 18:40
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.07%1.2%2026-05-31 18:40
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-05-31 18:30