Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo v Internacional

2026-09-20 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 47.82%2.09fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.56%47.81%48.03%49.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.911.922.0256.82%52.32%52.08%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Internacional (Visit)

Prediction 24.77%4.04fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.670%
Kelly -0.899%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.71%24.69%24.65%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.723.753.9330.30%26.90%26.67%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.40%3.65fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.67%27.50%27.33%28.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.5232.26%30.19%30.30%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sao Paulo (Local): 47.82%; Internacional (Visit): 24.77%; Draw: 27.40%. For Internacional (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.93, with an expected value of -2.63%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.42%EV -3.40%E -1.68%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.21%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.37%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-07 18:49
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-07 18:50
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.35%E -2.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 18:53
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.27%EV -4.83%E -2.43%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.44%EV -2.63%E -0.670%K -0.899%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.29%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-07 21:15
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -6.74%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 19:05
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.74%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-07 20:00
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.74%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-07 19:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.74%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-07 19:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.74%E -3.46%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-07 20:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.32%EV -7.70%E -3.99%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.41%EV -5.36%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -6.29%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-07 20:55
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -8.18%E -4.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 22:05
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -8.18%E -4.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 22:05
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.66%E -4.53%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-07 18:50
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.56%EV -8.66%E -4.53%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -18.24%E -5.53%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -15.06%E -4.86%K -7.17%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-07 18:49
LeoVegas🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.33%EV -9.13%E -4.81%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -4.62%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 20:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.01%EV -9.61%E -5.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -3.38%E -0.866%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 18:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.93%EV -9.61%E -5.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -3.38%E -0.866%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.36%EV -7.38%E -2.18%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 18:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.89%EV -13.92%E -7.73%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-07 18:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.43%EV -14.87%E -8.36%K -19.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -13.29%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.94%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-07 18:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.48%EV -15.35%E -8.67%K -19.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.84%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.68%EV -15.06%E -4.86%K -7.17%G +0.000%16.5%2026-09-07 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.93%EV -15.83%E -8.99%K -20.83%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.73%EV -10.07%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.34%EV -13.69%E -4.34%K -6.37%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-07 18:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 42.48%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.69%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.84%20.1%2026-09-08 01:40