The School of Odds
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Sao Paulo v Fluminense

2026-11-20 00:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 40.85%2.45fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.814%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.22%40.73%40.92%43.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.212.252.4052.91%45.22%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fluminense (Visit)

Prediction 29.76%3.36fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -0.776%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.61%29.80%29.68%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.123.3034.48%32.10%32.05%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.34%29.47%29.40%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.153.3034.48%32.10%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sao Paulo (Local): 40.85%; Fluminense (Visit): 29.76%; Draw: 29.39%. For Fluminense (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -1.78%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -1.95%E -0.814%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 20:56
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.22%EV -2.77%E -1.16%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.78%EV -7.44%E -2.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.01%EV -3.03%E -0.918%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-07 21:25
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-07 20:59
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.44%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 20:59
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.02%EV -4.41%E -1.88%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.72%EV -3.87%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.26%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-07 20:24
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -6.04%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -4.76%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -4.50%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 20:15
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.04%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.76%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-07 20:23
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.96%EV -7.27%E -3.20%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.80%EV -7.14%E -2.29%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.24%EV -6.55%E -2.06%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-07 20:14
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -1.78%E -0.541%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-07 20:24
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.76%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-07 20:45
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.76%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-07 20:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.76%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-07 20:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.76%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-07 20:45
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.12%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.91%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-07 20:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.12%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.91%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-07 20:45
MyBookie.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -12.17%E -5.66%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -1.78%E -0.541%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-07 20:14
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -12.17%E -5.66%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -3.27%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 20:15
picklebet_au🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -12.17%E -5.66%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -3.27%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -5.97%E -1.86%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 20:15
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.28%EV -12.17%E -5.66%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.86%EV -13.69%E -4.72%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.86%EV -14.78%E -5.10%K -7.78%G +0.000%15.5%2026-11-07 20:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -16.25%E -7.93%K -15.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -9.22%E -3.02%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -8.91%E -2.87%K -4.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-11-07 20:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.65%EV -18.30%E -9.15%K -18.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.92%EV -12.20%E -4.14%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.43%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%17.2%2026-11-07 20:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.42%EV -19.11%E -9.65%K -19.50%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 27.92%EV -8.33%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.66%EV -11.84%E -3.95%K -5.92%G +0.000%16.3%2026-11-07 20:23
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 43.83%EV -22.79%E -12.06%K -25.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.61%EV -10.71%E -3.57%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.56%EV -14.78%E -5.10%K -7.78%G +0.000%20.7%2026-11-07 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.36%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.79%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.85%4.1%2026-11-08 14:35

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