The School of Odds

Santos v Chapecoense

2026-07-25 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Santos (Local)

Prediction 63.73%1.57fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -8.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.01%63.72%63.77%65.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.381.441.441.5072%69%69%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chapecoense (Visit)

Prediction 14.32%6.98fair odd
EV +0.245%
Edge +0.035%
Kelly +0.041%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.48%14.35%14.21%16.84%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.006.146.007.0020%16%17%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 21.95%4.56fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.277%
Kelly -0.356%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.94%21.93%22.01%22.94%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.804.114.184.5026%24%24%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -5.67%E -3.83%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV +0.245%E +0.035%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -5.64%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 15:54
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -8.22%E -5.71%K -18.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.245%E +0.035%K +0.041%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -1.25%E -0.277%K -0.356%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 15:29
SportsBet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.59%EV -6.95%E -4.76%K -15.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.97%EV -3.33%E -0.494%K -0.580%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.44%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 15:09
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.90%EV -4.40%E -2.93%K -8.80%G +0.000%6.74I 14.84%NM 14.22%EV -3.48%E -0.516%K -0.606%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.88%EV -3.88%E -0.886%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 18:00
Marathon Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 63.84%EV -6.95%E -4.76%K -15.11%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.23%EV -6.20%E -0.946%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -6.73%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 17:39
Bet Right1.46I 68.49%NM 63.60%EV -6.95%E -4.76%K -15.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -6.92%E -1.06%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 15:39
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 64.88%EV -9.50%E -6.69%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -6.92%E -1.06%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -3.44%E -0.782%K -1.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 15:13
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -8.22%E -5.71%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -6.92%E -1.06%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-17 15:12
Betsson1.49I 67.11%NM 62.82%EV -5.04%E -3.38%K -10.28%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -8.35%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -8.93%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 16:19
NordicBet1.49I 67.11%NM 62.82%EV -5.04%E -3.38%K -10.28%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -8.35%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -8.93%E -2.15%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 16:19
Codere (IT)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -5.67%E -3.83%K -11.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -14.08%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 19:19
LeoVegas1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -7.59%E -5.23%K -16.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.08%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -5.64%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-17 19:19
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -8.22%E -5.71%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.08%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 15:34
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -8.22%E -5.71%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.08%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 15:34
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -8.22%E -5.71%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.08%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 15:34
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -8.22%E -5.71%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -14.08%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -14.41%E -3.70%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 15:35
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -10.77%E -7.69%K -26.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -14.08%E -2.35%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -7.83%E -1.86%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-17 15:12
Unibet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 61.62%EV -10.77%E -7.69%K -26.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.68%EV -21.24%E -3.86%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-17 19:19
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 61.62%EV -10.77%E -7.69%K -26.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.68%EV -21.24%E -3.86%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-17 15:14
Betclic (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 61.97%EV -11.41%E -8.21%K -29.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.66%EV -21.24%E -3.86%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.37%EV -15.51%E -4.03%K -5.44%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-17 19:18
Winamax (DE)1.41I 70.92%NM 61.78%EV -10.14%E -7.19%K -24.72%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.44%EV -24.10%E -4.55%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -12.22%E -3.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-17 19:19
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 61.01%EV -12.05%E -8.73%K -31.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.84%EV -28.40%E -5.68%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.16%EV -16.61%E -4.37%K -5.93%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-17 19:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 61.25%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.18%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.57%16.6%2026-07-17 19:19