La escuela de los momios

Palmeiras v Fluminense

Inicio: 2026-02-26 00:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Predicción 56.24%1.78momio equitativo
EV -2.70%
Ventaja -1.56%
Kelly -3.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.93%56.31%56.24%57.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.501.641.651.7366.67%60.87%60.61%57.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fluminense (Visitante)

Predicción 18.84%5.31momio equitativo
EV +1.92%
Ventaja +0.355%
Kelly +0.436%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.53%18.75%18.84%19.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.405.015.005.4122.73%19.95%20.00%18.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.92%4.01momio equitativo
EV -0.320%
Ventaja -0.080%
Kelly -0.107%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.97%24.94%24.92%26.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.733.754.0030.30%26.81%26.67%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.69I 59.17%NM 57.06%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.41I 18.48%NM 17.83%EV +1.92%E +0.355%K +0.436%G +0.008%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.11%EV -4.31%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-26 00:20
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 57.59%EV -5.52%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.92%EV +1.73%E +0.321%K +0.394%G +0.007%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.49%EV -1.57%E -0.396%K -0.531%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-26 00:00
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.59%EV -5.52%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.92%EV +1.73%E +0.321%K +0.394%G +0.007%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.49%EV -1.57%E -0.396%K -0.531%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-26 00:00
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.36%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.34%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.53%EV -0.152%E -0.029%K -0.035%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-26 00:23
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 57.08%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 23:10
LowVig.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 57.08%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 23:10
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 57.68%EV -8.33%E -5.11%K -13.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 23:59
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.68%EV -8.33%E -5.11%K -13.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-26 00:00
Unibet (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.68%EV -8.33%E -5.11%K -13.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 23:59
Casumo1.63I 61.35%NM 57.68%EV -8.33%E -5.11%K -13.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 23:59
Unibet (NL)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.68%EV -8.33%E -5.11%K -13.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 23:59
betPARX1.63I 61.35%NM 57.68%EV -8.33%E -5.11%K -13.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 23:59
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.61%EV -7.20%E -4.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 00:09
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -8.33%E -5.11%K -13.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.09%E -0.208%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-26 00:00
Bovada1.67I 59.88%NM 56.42%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -2.04%E -0.391%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 00:15
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 56.42%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -2.04%E -0.391%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 00:10
BetAnything1.67I 59.88%NM 56.42%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -2.04%E -0.391%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-26 00:10
BetRivers1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -2.04%E -0.391%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-26 00:00
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.77%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -2.04%E -0.391%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-26 00:15
1xBet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.77%EV -3.83%E -2.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.96%EV -3.54%E -0.692%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV -0.320%E -0.080%K -0.107%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-26 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -10.02%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -3.92%E -0.769%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-25 23:58
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 57.46%EV -10.02%E -6.26%K -16.69%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -3.92%E -0.769%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-25 23:59
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 57.73%EV -11.70%E -7.45%K -20.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV -3.92%E -0.769%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-26 00:00
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-25 23:35
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -4.95%E -2.93%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-25 23:05
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.75%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -2.81%E -0.721%K -0.970%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-26 00:19
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-25 23:44
Codere (IT)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-25 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:20
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-25 23:55
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 00:04
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 00:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 00:20
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 00:09
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.35%EV -6.64%E -4.00%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-25 23:00
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -7.20%E -4.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-25 23:48
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.78%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-25 23:40
Virgin Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 57.68%EV -12.26%E -7.86%K -21.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-26 00:00
LiveScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 57.68%EV -12.26%E -7.86%K -21.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-26 00:00
GTbets1.68I 59.52%NM 56.22%EV -5.52%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.93%EV -5.99%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 00:19
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.52%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -6.75%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-25 21:55
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.52%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -6.75%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-25 21:55
Coolbet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.11%EV -2.70%E -1.56%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.46%EV -7.69%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 17:14
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -7.20%E -4.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -9.57%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-26 00:10
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.20%E -4.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -9.57%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-26 00:20
William Hill1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.20%E -4.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -9.57%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-26 00:25
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.20%E -4.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -9.57%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-26 00:20
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -7.20%E -4.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -9.57%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-26 00:19
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.08%E -3.64%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -10.51%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.80%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-26 00:10
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 54.93%EV -5.52%E -3.28%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -10.51%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-26 00:04
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.51%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.55%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-25 23:35
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 55.99%EV -9.45%E -5.87%K -15.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.98%EV -10.51%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-26 00:24
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.02%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -10.51%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -15.27%E -4.49%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-26 00:25
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.68%EV -11.70%E -7.45%K -20.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.73%EV -10.51%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 24.58%EV -9.79%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-26 00:00
Betclic (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 56.10%EV -10.58%E -6.65%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -11.46%E -2.44%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.92%EV -10.79%E -3.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-26 00:05
Parions Sport (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 56.03%EV -11.14%E -7.05%K -19.21%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.04%EV -12.40%E -2.67%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.94%EV -11.53%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-26 00:04
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -8.89%E -5.49%K -14.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -13.34%E -2.90%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -5.30%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-25 23:55
PMU (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 56.16%EV -15.64%E -10.43%K -31.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.31%EV -13.34%E -2.90%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.53%EV -17.76%E -5.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%18.7%2026-02-26 00:25
Winamax (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.62%EV -11.14%E -7.05%K -19.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -17.11%E -3.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -10.29%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.8%2026-02-25 23:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 57.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.23%0.3%2026-02-26 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.23%0.3%2026-02-26 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.23%0.3%2026-02-26 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.28%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.49%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.23%0.3%2026-02-26 00:20
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%NM 57.20%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.23%1.6%2026-02-26 00:25