L’École des cotes

Palmeiras v Chapecoense

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-31 19:00 UTC

Score final : Palmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Prévision 67.15%1.49cote équitable
EV -3.30%
Avantage -2.29%
Kelly -7.50%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.44

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
64.65%67.17%67.21%70.31%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.281.381.381.4478.13%72.69%72.46%69.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Chapecoense (Visiteur)

Prévision 12.67%7.89cote équitable
EV +14.03%
Avantage +1.56%
Kelly +1.75%
Croissance +0.246%

avec la cote maximale 9.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.47%12.65%12.62%14.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.907.657.509.0016.95%13.07%13.33%11.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 20.18%4.96cote équitable
EV +2.90%
Avantage +0.569%
Kelly +0.708%
Croissance +0.021%

avec la cote maximale 5.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.73%20.18%20.17%22.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.654.705.1026.67%21.52%21.28%19.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 70.23%EV -7.33%E -5.31%K -19.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.77%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.00%EV +2.90%E +0.569%K +0.708%G +0.021%3.2%2026-05-31 18:39
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 70.23%EV -7.33%E -5.31%K -19.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.77%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.00%EV +2.90%E +0.569%K +0.708%G +0.021%3.2%2026-05-31 18:40
Unibet (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:40
Casumo1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:39
Grosvenor1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:40
Unibet (NL)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:39
Unibet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:39
betPARX1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:40
BetRivers1.33I 75.19%NM 70.03%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-31 18:40
LeoVegas1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -11.36%E -8.60%K -35.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -11.36%E -8.60%K -35.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:39
PMU (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -12.70%E -9.77%K -42.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-31 18:40
TABtouch1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -12.70%E -9.77%K -42.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-31 18:40
Virgin Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 70.28%EV -14.04%E -10.97%K -50.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-31 18:30
LiveScore Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 70.28%EV -14.04%E -10.97%K -50.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-31 18:30
Coolbet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.99%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.75%EV +2.62%E +0.324%K +0.369%G +0.010%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 18:49
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 68.39%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.81%EV +1.99%E +0.247%K +0.282%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-31 18:40
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 68.39%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.81%EV +1.99%E +0.247%K +0.282%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-31 18:40
BetAnything1.39I 71.94%NM 68.39%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.81%EV +1.99%E +0.247%K +0.282%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-31 18:40
Bet Right1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -8.00%E -5.84%K -21.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-31 18:40
PointsBet (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -8.00%E -5.84%K -21.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-31 18:40
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-31 18:50
FanDuel1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:50
Tipico (DE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-31 18:19
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93%NM 67.67%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 12.17%EV +0.723%E +0.091%K +0.104%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-31 18:40
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.14%EV -9.34%E -6.92%K -26.69%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.87%EV -1.81%E -0.234%K -0.268%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-31 18:40
1xBet1.44I 69.44%NM 67.29%EV -3.30%E -2.29%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.56I 13.23%NM 12.82%EV -4.22%E -0.558%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.90%EV -1.74%E -0.357%K -0.449%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-31 18:50
DraftKings1.41I 70.92%NM 67.20%EV -5.31%E -3.77%K -12.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 18:40
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-31 18:40
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-31 18:38
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 67.82%EV -7.33%E -5.31%K -19.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-31 18:39
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-31 18:39
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-31 18:40
GTbets1.36I 73.53%NM 68.57%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%7.34I 13.62%NM 12.70%EV -7.01%E -0.954%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 18.73%EV +0.481%E +0.097%K +0.121%G +0.001%7.2%2026-05-31 18:40
Marathon Bet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.14%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.78%EV -7.51%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -6.18%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-31 18:50
Bovada1.42I 70.42%NM 67.04%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.13%EV -8.15%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-31 18:38
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.41%EV -3.30%E -2.29%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.66%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.92%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-31 18:39
BetUS1.43I 69.93%NM 66.57%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-31 18:50
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-31 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.84%EV -3.30%E -2.29%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 18:40
Codere (IT)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-31 18:50
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 18:50
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:40
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:39
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:40
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:40
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -12.63%E -2.92%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-31 18:49
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.37%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 64.74%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.30%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.96%EV -24.34%E -6.49%K -8.85%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-31 18:50
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -12.58%E -1.82%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -10.21%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-31 18:50
Betsson1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -12.58%E -1.82%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -10.21%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-31 18:50
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -14.48%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-31 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -14.48%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-31 18:39
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 65.07%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.69%EV -14.48%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -12.23%E -2.81%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Betclic (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.35%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.37%EV -14.48%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.28%EV -10.21%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-31 18:37
Unibet (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -18.91%E -2.96%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.69%EV -13.24%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-31 18:50
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 65.59%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -20.82%E -3.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-31 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 64.65%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.90%EV -25.25%E -4.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.45%EV -13.24%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-31 18:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 68.98%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.55%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%0.7%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.89%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%0.8%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.89%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%0.8%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.21%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.00%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.0%2026-05-31 18:50
Smarkets1.44I 69.44%NM 68.52%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.75%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73%1.3%2026-05-31 18:50
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.78%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.62%1.9%2026-05-31 18:40