La escuela de los momios

Palmeiras v Chapecoense

Inicio: 2026-05-31 19:00 UTC

Final: Palmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Predicción 67.15%1.49momio equitativo
EV -3.30%
Ventaja -2.29%
Kelly -7.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.65%67.17%67.21%70.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.281.381.381.4478.13%72.69%72.46%69.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chapecoense (Visitante)

Predicción 12.67%7.89momio equitativo
EV +14.03%
Ventaja +1.56%
Kelly +1.75%
Crecimiento +0.246%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.47%12.65%12.62%14.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.907.657.509.0016.95%13.07%13.33%11.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.18%4.96momio equitativo
EV +2.90%
Ventaja +0.569%
Kelly +0.708%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.73%20.18%20.17%22.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.654.705.1026.67%21.52%21.28%19.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 70.23%EV -7.33%E -5.31%K -19.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.77%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.00%EV +2.90%E +0.569%K +0.708%G +0.021%3.2%2026-05-31 18:39
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 70.23%EV -7.33%E -5.31%K -19.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.77%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.00%EV +2.90%E +0.569%K +0.708%G +0.021%3.2%2026-05-31 18:40
Unibet (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:40
Casumo1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:39
Grosvenor1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:40
Unibet (NL)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:39
Unibet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:39
betPARX1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +14.03%E +1.56%K +1.75%G +0.246%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 18:40
BetRivers1.33I 75.19%NM 70.03%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -1.13%E -0.231%K -0.291%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-31 18:40
LeoVegas1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -11.36%E -8.60%K -35.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -11.36%E -8.60%K -35.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:39
PMU (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -12.70%E -9.77%K -42.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-31 18:40
TABtouch1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -12.70%E -9.77%K -42.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-31 18:40
Virgin Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 70.28%EV -14.04%E -10.97%K -50.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-31 18:30
LiveScore Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 70.28%EV -14.04%E -10.97%K -50.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV +7.69%E +0.905%K +1.03%G +0.079%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.14%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-31 18:30
Coolbet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.99%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.75%EV +2.62%E +0.324%K +0.369%G +0.010%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 18:49
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 68.39%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.81%EV +1.99%E +0.247%K +0.282%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-31 18:40
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 68.39%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.81%EV +1.99%E +0.247%K +0.282%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-31 18:40
BetAnything1.39I 71.94%NM 68.39%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.81%EV +1.99%E +0.247%K +0.282%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.80%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-31 18:40
Bet Right1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -8.00%E -5.84%K -21.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-31 18:40
PointsBet (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -8.00%E -5.84%K -21.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-31 18:40
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.23%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-31 18:50
FanDuel1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -10.01%E -7.47%K -29.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:50
Tipico (DE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV +1.36%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-31 18:19
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93%NM 67.67%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 12.17%EV +0.723%E +0.091%K +0.104%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-31 18:40
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.14%EV -9.34%E -6.92%K -26.69%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.87%EV -1.81%E -0.234%K -0.268%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-31 18:40
1xBet1.44I 69.44%NM 67.29%EV -3.30%E -2.29%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.56I 13.23%NM 12.82%EV -4.22%E -0.558%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.90%EV -1.74%E -0.357%K -0.449%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-31 18:50
DraftKings1.41I 70.92%NM 67.20%EV -5.31%E -3.77%K -12.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 18:40
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-31 18:40
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-31 18:38
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 67.82%EV -7.33%E -5.31%K -19.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-31 18:39
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-31 18:39
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -4.98%E -0.664%K -0.766%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-31 18:40
GTbets1.36I 73.53%NM 68.57%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%7.34I 13.62%NM 12.70%EV -7.01%E -0.954%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 18.73%EV +0.481%E +0.097%K +0.121%G +0.001%7.2%2026-05-31 18:40
Marathon Bet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.14%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.78%EV -7.51%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -6.18%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-31 18:50
Bovada1.42I 70.42%NM 67.04%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.13%EV -8.15%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-31 18:38
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.41%EV -3.30%E -2.29%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.66%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.92%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-31 18:39
BetUS1.43I 69.93%NM 66.57%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -3.15%E -0.656%K -0.829%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-31 18:50
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -4.16%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-31 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.84%EV -3.30%E -2.29%K -7.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 18:40
Codere (IT)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -5.17%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-31 18:50
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 18:50
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:40
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:39
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:40
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-31 18:40
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -5.99%E -4.28%K -14.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -12.63%E -2.92%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-31 18:49
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 67.01%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.22%E -2.55%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.37%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -15.26%E -3.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 64.74%EV -10.69%E -8.03%K -32.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.30%EV -11.31%E -1.62%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.96%EV -24.34%E -6.49%K -8.85%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-31 18:50
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -12.58%E -1.82%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -10.21%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-31 18:50
Betsson1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -3.97%E -2.78%K -9.23%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -12.58%E -1.82%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -10.21%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-31 18:50
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -14.48%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-31 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -14.48%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -9.20%E -2.05%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-31 18:39
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 65.07%EV -4.64%E -3.27%K -11.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.69%EV -14.48%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -12.23%E -2.81%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-31 18:50
Betclic (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.35%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.37%EV -14.48%E -2.15%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.28%EV -10.21%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-31 18:37
Unibet (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -18.91%E -2.96%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.69%EV -13.24%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-31 18:50
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 65.59%EV -6.66%E -4.79%K -17.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -20.82%E -3.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -7.19%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-31 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 64.65%EV -8.67%E -6.38%K -24.09%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.90%EV -25.25%E -4.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.45%EV -13.24%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-31 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.44I 69.44%NM 68.98%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.55%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%0.7%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.89%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%0.8%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.89%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.27%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%0.8%2026-05-31 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.21%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.00%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.0%2026-05-31 18:50
Smarkets1.44I 69.44%NM 68.52%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.75%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73%1.3%2026-05-31 18:50
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.78%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.62%1.9%2026-05-31 18:40