The School of Odds
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Mirassol v Flamengo

2026-08-16 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mirassol (Local)

Prediction 24.37%4.10fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.449%
Kelly -0.597%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.11%24.28%24.40%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.773.804.0329.41%26.55%26.32%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 47.83%2.09fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.49%47.98%47.74%49.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.901.912.0257.47%52.49%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.80%3.60fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -0.931%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.61%27.74%27.87%28.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.333.4833.33%30.29%30.08%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Mirassol (Local): 24.37%; Flamengo (Visit): 47.83%; Draw: 27.80%. For Mirassol (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.03, with an expected value of -1.81%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet4.03I 24.81%NM 23.85%EV -1.81%E -0.449%K -0.597%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.54%EV -5.30%E -2.67%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.62%EV -3.24%E -0.931%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 13:39
Codere (IT)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -2.54%E -0.635%K -0.846%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.70%EV -11.04%E -5.93%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-02 12:54
Marathon Bet3.92I 25.51%NM 23.80%EV -4.49%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.59%EV -8.17%E -4.25%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -6.02%E -1.78%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 13:29
LeoVegas3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -4.98%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -10.08%E -5.36%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-02 18:49
Coolbet3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 13:39
SportsBet3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.04%EV -3.38%E -1.67%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 13:40
FanDuel3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 13:44
William Hill3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -8.64%E -4.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.64%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:59
888sport3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -8.64%E -4.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.64%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:54
888sport (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -8.64%E -4.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.64%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:55
Mr Green (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -8.64%E -4.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -9.64%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:55
Bet Right3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.32%EV -5.77%E -2.93%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 13:40
Betclic (FR)3.73I 26.81%NM 23.15%EV -9.12%E -2.44%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 49.62%EV -16.78%E -9.64%K -22.67%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.24%EV -11.86%E -3.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 12:54
NordicBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.30%E -2.67%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 20:05
Betsson3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.30%E -2.67%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 20:04
Unibet (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 23.45%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.01%EV -15.34%E -8.67%K -19.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.54%EV -12.42%E -3.94%K -5.77%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-02 12:54
Winamax (DE)3.65I 27.40%NM 24.06%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.33%EV -14.86%E -8.35%K -19.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-02 12:54
Paddy Power3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -12.29%E -3.41%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -8.64%E -4.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.64%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-02 13:40
Winamax (FR)3.60I 27.78%NM 24.08%EV -12.29%E -3.41%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.25%EV -15.82%E -8.99%K -20.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -9.64%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-02 12:54
Sky Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -17.16%E -5.05%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.49%EV -8.64%E -4.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.96%EV -16.59%E -5.53%K -8.29%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-02 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.