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Mirassol v Botafogo

2026-09-19 20:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mirassol (Local)

Prediction 41.69%2.40fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.39%41.56%41.72%42.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.032.192.212.3249.26%45.69%45.25%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Botafogo (Visit)

Prediction 30.40%3.29fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.67%30.39%30.32%30.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.1735.71%33.29%33.33%31.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.92%3.58fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.655%
Kelly -0.917%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.14%28.04%27.96%29.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.083.253.303.5032.47%30.80%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Mirassol (Local): 41.69%; Botafogo (Visit): 30.40%; Draw: 27.92%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -2.29%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.42%EV -3.28%E -1.42%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.31%EV -3.65%E -1.15%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.26%EV -5.08%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-07 19:45
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -4.12%E -1.79%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.08%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 19:59
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -6.20%E -2.76%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -2.29%E -0.655%K -0.917%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 20:05
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.20%E -2.76%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.08%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-07 20:10
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.20%E -2.76%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.81%E -2.94%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.46%E -4.34%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 20:00
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.20%E -2.76%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.81%E -2.94%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.46%E -4.34%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 19:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.20%E -2.76%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.81%E -2.94%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.46%E -4.34%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 20:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.20%E -2.76%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.81%E -2.94%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.46%E -4.34%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 19:59
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.45%E -3.36%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -7.29%E -2.39%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.87%E -2.39%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 20:00
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%EV -7.45%E -3.36%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -7.29%E -2.39%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.87%E -2.39%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 20:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.87%E -2.39%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 18:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.87%E -2.39%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 18:35
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.29%E -3.77%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.81%E -2.94%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.08%E -1.50%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 20:00
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.10%EV -9.12%E -4.18%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -7.29%E -2.39%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.87%E -2.39%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-07 20:00
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.37%E -4.82%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -11.85%E -4.09%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -7.87%E -2.39%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-07 20:00
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -12.46%E -5.93%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -14.89%E -5.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -13.46%E -4.34%K -6.41%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-07 19:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.60%EV -14.54%E -7.09%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -11.85%E -4.09%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.29%EV -10.67%E -3.33%K -4.85%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-07 18:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.23%EV -14.54%E -7.09%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.85%EV -11.85%E -4.09%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.92%EV -13.46%E -4.34%K -6.41%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-07 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.19%EV -14.54%E -7.09%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.35%EV -13.37%E -4.69%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.46%EV -12.06%E -3.83%K -5.61%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-07 18:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 42.39%EV -15.37%E -7.57%K -14.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.67%EV -11.85%E -4.09%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 27.94%EV -14.02%E -4.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-07 18:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 43.84%2.94I 34.01%NM 29.83%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.33%14.0%2026-09-08 01:40