La escuela de los momios

Mirassol v Bahia

Inicio: 2026-04-11 21:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Mirassol (Local)

Predicción 42.47%2.35momio equitativo
EV -1.47%
Ventaja -0.633%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.34%42.40%42.47%43.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.192.202.3248.78%45.74%45.45%43.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Bahia (Visitante)

Predicción 29.28%3.42momio equitativo
EV -1.04%
Ventaja -0.308%
Kelly -0.437%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.12%29.25%29.31%30.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.193.203.3834.72%31.38%31.25%29.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.25%3.54momio equitativo
EV -2.53%
Ventaja -0.734%
Kelly -1.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.37%28.35%28.23%30.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.283.303.4535.71%30.52%30.30%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.32I 43.10%NM 41.82%EV -1.47%E -0.633%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.40%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.79%EV -4.79%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 21:25
Coolbet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.38%EV -2.32%E -1.01%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -1.92%E -0.573%K -0.817%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -11.01%E -3.49%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 19:49
GTbets2.29I 43.67%NM 41.90%EV -2.74%E -1.20%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.71%EV -5.43%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.39%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 21:05
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.46%EV -3.17%E -1.39%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.64%EV -1.04%E -0.308%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.90%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 21:20
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.03%EV -4.44%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.90%EV -1.92%E -0.573%K -0.817%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06%EV -2.53%E -0.734%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 20:44
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 43.03%EV -4.44%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.90%EV -1.92%E -0.573%K -0.817%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06%EV -2.53%E -0.734%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 20:45
LowVig.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -4.44%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 21:05
BetOnline.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -4.44%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 21:05
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -4.44%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 21:04
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -4.44%E -1.97%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 21:19
Codere (IT)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.44%EV -5.72%E -2.57%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 21:10
BetAnything2.22I 45.05%NM 42.26%EV -5.72%E -2.57%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 21:15
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -5.72%E -2.57%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 21:05
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -5.72%E -2.57%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 21:04
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 21:04
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 21:05
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 21:05
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 21:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 21:10
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 21:08
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 21:05
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 21:09
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.51%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.98%EV -8.65%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 21:13
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 21:20
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.38%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 21:03
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 21:05
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.94%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 20:54
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 20:55
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 21:04
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 20:55
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 21:25
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 05:00
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 21:05
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 21:05
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.56%E -2.98%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 21:04
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.41%E -3.40%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 20:50
Grosvenor2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.41%E -3.40%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 20:50
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.41%E -3.40%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 20:45
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.41%E -3.40%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 20:50
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.41%E -3.40%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 20:44
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.41%E -3.40%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 20:50
BetRivers2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -7.84%E -3.61%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -5.36%E -1.60%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 20:44
Marathon Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -8.26%E -3.83%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -3.97%E -1.21%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -7.33%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.69%E -4.04%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 20:44
LeoVegas2.14I 46.73%NM 43.15%EV -9.11%E -4.26%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 20:50
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -9.96%E -4.70%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 20:44
PMU (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -9.96%E -4.70%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.77%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 20:44
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.18%E -2.52%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 21:10
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.01%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.62%EV -10.70%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -6.77%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 21:10
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 20:44
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 20:45
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -6.31%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -12.42%E -4.01%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 21:05
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -15.25%E -5.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-11 21:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -15.68%E -5.44%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -20.90%E -7.46%K -11.61%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-11 16:34
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 42.81%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.70%E -3.51%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.00%EV -10.16%E -3.20%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 21:06
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -12.94%E -6.31%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -9.24%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 21:09
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -12.94%E -6.31%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -13.63%E -4.62%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -9.60%E -3.00%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-11 21:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.7%2026-04-11 21:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.7%2026-04-11 21:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.7%2026-04-11 21:20
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 42.86%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.4%2026-04-11 21:25
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-04-11 21:05
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 42.74%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.12%3.1%2026-04-11 21:10