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Mirassol v Atletico Mineiro

2026-11-14 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mirassol (Local)

Prediction 37.65%2.66fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.56%37.45%37.65%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.402.422.5447.62%41.68%41.32%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 34.66%2.89fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.07%34.67%34.66%34.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.642.622.7740.00%37.94%38.17%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.69%3.61fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.89%27.89%27.69%28.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.303.4833.33%30.59%30.30%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Mirassol (Local): 37.65%; Atletico Mineiro (Visit): 34.66%; Draw: 27.69%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.48, with an expected value of -3.65%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.78%EV -4.36%E -1.72%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.64%EV -3.99%E -1.44%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.58%EV -3.65%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-04 17:32
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.87%E -2.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -4.48%E -1.30%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-04 16:50
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.87%E -2.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -4.68%E -1.70%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-04 16:50
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.87%E -2.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.41%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.87%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-04 16:50
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -5.87%E -2.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.19%E -3.51%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.41%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 16:50
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -5.87%E -2.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.19%E -3.51%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.41%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -5.87%E -2.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.19%E -3.51%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.41%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 16:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -5.87%E -2.35%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.19%E -3.51%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.41%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-04 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.85%EV -7.37%E -3.00%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.61%EV -6.76%E -2.51%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.54%EV -6.42%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-04 17:20
MyBookie.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.25%EV -8.88%E -3.67%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.03%EV -5.72%E -2.10%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.72%EV -7.53%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-04 16:50
picklebet_au🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -9.63%E -4.01%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -6.41%E -2.38%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-04 16:49
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -9.63%E -4.01%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -8.15%E -3.07%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -7.25%E -2.16%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-04 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -9.63%E -4.01%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -8.84%E -3.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-04 17:10
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -9.63%E -4.01%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -9.19%E -3.51%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.64%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-04 16:53
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -13.40%E -5.83%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -13.35%E -5.34%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -14.17%E -4.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%15.7%2026-11-04 16:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -15.28%E -6.79%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.27%EV -11.61%E -4.55%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.89%EV -10.02%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%14.4%2026-11-04 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 38.83%EV -16.41%E -7.39%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.54%EV -10.92%E -4.25%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 27.63%EV -13.62%E -4.37%K -6.42%G +0.000%16.0%2026-11-04 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.78%EV -17.16%E -7.80%K -14.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.13%EV -13.35%E -5.34%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.09%EV -12.79%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000%17.2%2026-11-04 16:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.37%EV -20.93%E -9.97%K -19.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.07%EV -13.35%E -5.34%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.56%EV -16.94%E -5.65%K -8.47%G +0.000%21.0%2026-11-04 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 34.47%1.33I 75.19%NM 31.88%1.26I 79.37%NM 33.65%135.9%2026-11-04 19:20