Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Internacional v Sao Paulo

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Internacional (Local)

Prediction 42.37%2.36fair odd
EV -0.436%
Edge -0.186%
Kelly -0.323%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.05%42.39%42.40%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.212.202.3550.00%45.31%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 27.79%3.60fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.391%
Kelly +0.539%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.33%27.76%27.74%29.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.353.6532.26%29.69%29.85%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.84%3.35fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.84%29.85%29.86%30.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.083.103.2536.36%32.47%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Internacional (Local): 42.37%; Sao Paulo (Visit): 27.79%; Draw: 29.84%. For Sao Paulo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.37%EV -5.52%E -2.48%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.50%EV +1.43%E +0.391%K +0.539%G +0.008%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.13%EV -4.20%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-01 22:10
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV +0.038%E +0.011%K +0.015%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-01 22:00
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV +0.038%E +0.011%K +0.015%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-01 21:59
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.35%EV -8.06%E -3.72%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -1.35%E -0.381%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.15%EV -6.89%E -2.21%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:15
BetUS🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.35%EV -8.06%E -3.72%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -1.35%E -0.381%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.15%EV -6.89%E -2.21%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:09
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.79%EV -1.71%E -0.736%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.62%EV -2.46%E -0.702%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.59%EV -5.39%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-01 22:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.37%EV -0.436%E -0.186%K -0.323%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -2.74%E -0.783%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.86%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-01 22:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.37%EV -0.436%E -0.186%K -0.323%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -2.74%E -0.783%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.86%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-01 22:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.74%E -0.783%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:20
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.74%E -0.783%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:17
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.74%E -0.783%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:20
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.91%E -4.14%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -2.74%E -0.783%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 22:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.77%EV -7.64%E -3.50%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -3.85%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.28%EV -8.08%E -2.62%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:09
GTbets🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.82%EV -4.25%E -1.88%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.39%EV -4.13%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.79%EV -8.38%E -2.73%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-01 22:05
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -4.13%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 22:09
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.13%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-01 22:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.13%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-01 22:20
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -7.64%E -3.50%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -4.13%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-01 22:05
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.67%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.52%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-01 21:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.20%EV -5.10%E -2.28%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -5.52%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-01 22:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.67%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.52%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:05
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.91%E -4.14%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.52%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -3.01%E -0.925%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-01 22:08
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.91%E -4.14%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.52%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-01 22:04
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -11.03%E -5.25%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -5.52%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.45%E -4.64%K -7.08%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-01 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.34%EV -4.67%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.27%EV -6.35%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 21:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.34%EV -4.67%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.27%EV -6.35%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 21:49
BetAnything🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.34%EV -4.67%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.27%EV -6.35%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -3.30%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 21:49
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.38%EV -2.55%E -1.11%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -6.91%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-01 19:14
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -3.40%E -1.49%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.91%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -3.40%E -1.49%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.91%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -3.40%E -1.49%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.91%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -3.40%E -1.49%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.91%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -3.40%E -1.49%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.91%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:00
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -3.40%E -1.49%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.91%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:00
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -4.67%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -6.91%E -2.06%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 22:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 22:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -4.50%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 22:05
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-01 22:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -5.52%E -2.48%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 22:00
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -5.52%E -2.48%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 22:00
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-01 22:00
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-01 22:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-01 22:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-01 22:04
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -11.03%E -5.25%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:10
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -11.03%E -5.25%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -8.30%E -2.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -13.45%E -4.64%K -7.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-01 22:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -9.69%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-01 22:05
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -9.69%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -11.96%E -4.05%K -6.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-01 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.61%EV -8.06%E -3.72%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -9.69%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.61%EV -11.96%E -4.05%K -6.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-01 22:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.61%EV -8.06%E -3.72%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -9.69%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.61%EV -11.96%E -4.05%K -6.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-01 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -11.03%E -5.25%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.61%EV -10.24%E -3.17%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.93%EV -11.06%E -3.71%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-01 22:04
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -3.40%E -1.49%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -11.08%E -3.46%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -5.99%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-01 20:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.79%E -3.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.08%E -3.46%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-01 14:03
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.91%E -4.14%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.08%E -3.46%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.48%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-01 22:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.65%EV -8.91%E -4.14%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -11.08%E -3.46%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.36%EV -11.96%E -4.05%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-01 22:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -13.15%E -6.41%K -12.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -13.86%E -4.47%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-01 22:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.15%EV -15.27%E -7.63%K -15.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.19%EV -13.86%E -4.47%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.66%EV -17.93%E -6.52%K -10.24%G +0.000%18.6%2026-04-01 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-04-01 22:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-04-01 22:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-04-01 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.17%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.6%2026-04-01 22:15
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 43.09%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70%1.8%2026-04-01 22:15
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%1.9%2026-04-01 21:50