La escuela de los momios

Internacional v Fluminense

Inicio: 2026-05-03 21:30 UTC

Final: Internacional 2–0 Fluminense

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Internacional (Local)

Predicción 42.60%2.35momio equitativo
EV +1.39%
Ventaja +0.586%
Kelly +1.01%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.80%42.58%42.74%43.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.182.202.3850.00%45.79%45.45%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fluminense (Visitante)

Predicción 27.87%3.59momio equitativo
EV -1.33%
Ventaja -0.375%
Kelly -0.522%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.88%27.89%27.83%29.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.053.323.353.5432.79%30.10%29.85%28.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.52%3.39momio equitativo
EV -1.10%
Ventaja -0.328%
Kelly -0.467%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.94%29.53%29.43%31.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.153.173.3537.04%31.75%31.50%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV +1.39%E +0.586%K +1.01%G +0.014%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.42%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.78%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 21:20
Pinnacle2.26I 44.25%NM 42.81%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.33%EV -1.33%E -0.375%K -0.522%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.86%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 21:11
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 43.03%EV -4.14%E -1.84%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06%EV -3.83%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.90%EV -1.10%E -0.328%K -0.467%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 21:20
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.03%EV -4.14%E -1.84%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06%EV -3.83%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.90%EV -1.10%E -0.328%K -0.467%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 21:20
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -4.14%E -1.84%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.48%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 15:39
Coolbet2.24I 44.64%NM 42.51%EV -4.57%E -2.04%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -4.64%E -1.44%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 15:23
GTbets2.23I 44.84%NM 41.88%EV -5.00%E -2.24%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.38%EV -8.29%E -2.52%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.74%EV -7.30%E -2.32%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-30 23:59
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -5.42%E -2.44%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -9.95%E -3.26%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 21:25
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -5.42%E -2.44%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -9.95%E -3.26%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 21:20
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.88%E -0.535%K -0.747%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -4.94%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.88%E -0.535%K -0.747%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -4.94%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
BetAnything2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.08%EV -1.88%E -0.535%K -0.747%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -4.94%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 21:20
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 15:44
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 15:40
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 20:50
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 16:30
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 16:30
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 21:04
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.44%E -0.697%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.48%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 21:11
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -2.44%E -0.697%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.48%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 21:11
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 21:05
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 16:30
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 16:30
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.48%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:05
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 21:20
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 21:20
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.48%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:05
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -12.20%E -3.87%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 21:20
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 21:25
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 21:20
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 21:20
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 21:20
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 21:20
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 21:20
Codere (IT)2.19I 45.66%NM 43.15%EV -6.70%E -3.06%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -6.62%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -2.57%E -0.780%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 15:40
Marathon Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.74%EV -7.13%E -3.27%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -7.89%E -2.53%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 21:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 42.93%EV -7.98%E -3.69%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 21:20
LeoVegas2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -5.53%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 21:20
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 16:00
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -14.38%E -4.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-03 21:11
PMU (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -9.68%E -4.57%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 21:20
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -9.68%E -4.57%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 21:20
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -10.53%E -5.02%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -12.20%E -3.87%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -4.05%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 15:40
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.53%E -5.02%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -8.48%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.53%E -5.02%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -8.48%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -10.53%E -5.02%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -14.38%E -4.96%K -7.57%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-03 21:25
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -12.66%E -6.18%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-03 21:00
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.52%EV -12.66%E -6.18%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.88%EV -10.80%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.60%EV -7.89%E -2.53%K -3.72%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 21:05
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -12.66%E -6.18%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -14.98%E -4.91%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -8.48%E -2.73%K -4.04%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 41.91%EV -14.79%E -7.40%K -14.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.04%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.05%EV -20.29%E -7.51%K -11.93%G +0.000%19.3%2026-05-03 21:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-05-03 21:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-05-03 21:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-05-03 21:25
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.69%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%1.3%2026-05-03 21:25
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-05-03 21:25
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-05-03 21:25