Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.31
assuming max odds 3.35
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 42.13%; Bragantino-SP (Visit): 29.56%; Draw: 28.31%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -0.932%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.94%EV -2.67%E -1.16%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.37%EV -5.70%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -0.932%E -0.266%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -3.09%E -1.34%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -3.09%E -1.34%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.24%EV -3.51%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.05%EV -1.56%E -0.469%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.71%EV -4.61%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-13 00:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.50%EV -3.94%E -1.73%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -0.932%E -0.266%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-13 00:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.30%EV -3.94%E -1.73%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.14%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -0.932%E -0.266%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -3.94%E -1.73%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.88%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -3.94%E -1.73%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.88%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.45%EV -4.78%E -2.11%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-13 00:23 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.71%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.84%EV -4.81%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -0.932%E -0.266%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.46%EV -0.970%E -0.290%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.16%EV -7.44%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-13 00:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.88%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.62%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.01%EV -7.77%E -2.49%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-13 00:23 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -9.84%E -3.23%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.18%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 00:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -5.20%E -2.31%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.30%EV -6.04%E -2.71%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -6.88%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-13 00:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.30%EV -6.04%E -2.71%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -6.88%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-13 00:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.04%E -2.71%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.04%E -2.71%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.04%E -2.71%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-13 00:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.04%E -2.71%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.61%EV -6.46%E -2.91%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-13 00:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -6.46%E -2.91%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -6.00%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -2.45%E -0.742%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -3.20%E -0.935%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -2.45%E -0.742%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -3.20%E -0.935%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -3.76%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-12 12:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -2.45%E -0.742%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-12 23:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.88%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.18%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-13 00:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.88%E -2.18%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.18%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-13 00:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 00:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-13 00:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-13 00:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.31%E -3.32%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-13 00:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -8.15%E -3.74%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -5.18%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-13 00:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.59%EV -8.57%E -3.95%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -5.18%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-13 00:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.44%EV -9.41%E -4.38%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -9.84%E -3.23%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -6.59%E -2.00%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-13 00:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.40%EV -9.41%E -4.38%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -5.18%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-13 00:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.41%E -4.38%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.41%E -4.38%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.25%E -3.95%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-13 00:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.68%EV -9.41%E -4.38%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.84%E -3.44%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.41%E -4.38%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.08%E -5.03%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-13 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.16%EV -9.83%E -4.60%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.16%EV -9.83%E -4.60%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -8.01%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -11.52%E -5.49%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -14.86%E -5.16%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -20.75%E -7.41%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-03-13 00:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.83%EV -12.36%E -5.94%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 29.50%EV -10.73%E -3.55%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 27.67%EV -8.86%E -2.75%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-13 00:13 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -13.63%E -6.65%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-13 00:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.60%EV -13.63%E -6.65%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -14.27%E -4.92%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.29%EV -9.42%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-03-13 00:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 43.20%EV -14.47%E -7.13%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 27.57%EV -9.99%E -3.14%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-13 00:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 42.65%EV -17.84%E -9.15%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.68%EV -14.27%E -4.92%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.68%EV -17.92%E -6.18%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-03-12 23:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-03-13 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-03-13 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08% | 1.1% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.26% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08% | 1.1% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.86% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.86% | 1.9% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.73% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14% | 3.0% | 2026-03-13 00:25 |