La escuela de los momios

Fluminense v Flamengo

Inicio: 2026-04-12 21:02 UTC

Final: Fluminense 1–2 Flamengo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fluminense (Local)

Predicción 30.17%3.31momio equitativo
EV +3.79%
Ventaja +1.10%
Kelly +1.55%
Crecimiento +0.059%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.23%30.32%30.21%31.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.083.103.4435.71%32.47%32.26%29.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Flamengo (Visitante)

Predicción 38.89%2.57momio equitativo
EV -0.836%
Ventaja -0.328%
Kelly -0.539%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.84%38.82%38.83%41.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.402.402.5545.45%41.66%41.67%39.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.94%3.23momio equitativo
EV -1.92%
Ventaja -0.605%
Kelly -0.883%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.08%30.86%30.95%32.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.983.003.1738.02%33.58%33.33%31.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.44I 29.07%NM 28.23%EV +3.79%E +1.10%K +1.55%G +0.059%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.14%EV -8.22%E -3.49%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.63%EV -1.92%E -0.605%K -0.883%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 20:59
ATG (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.94%EV -1.94%E -0.598%K -0.864%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.16%EV -0.836%E -0.328%K -0.539%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.90%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 20:59
Svenska Spel3.25I 30.77%NM 29.94%EV -1.94%E -0.598%K -0.864%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.16%EV -0.836%E -0.328%K -0.539%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.90%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 20:59
Pinnacle3.25I 30.77%NM 29.77%EV -1.94%E -0.598%K -0.864%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.33%EV -4.34%E -1.76%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.91%EV -3.15%E -1.01%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 20:59
LowVig.ag3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -3.45%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.56%EV -6.28%E -2.61%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.65%EV -3.77%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 21:00
BetOnline.ag3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -3.45%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.56%EV -6.28%E -2.61%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.65%EV -3.77%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 21:00
BetUS3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -3.45%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.42%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 20:59
SportsBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.45%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 21:00
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.45%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 21:00
DraftKings3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -3.45%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -8.61%E -3.67%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 21:00
Coolbet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 20:59
BetAnything3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 20:59
Bovada3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.33%EV -7.06%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 21:00
Unibet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 20:59
Unibet (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 20:59
BetRivers3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 20:55
Casumo3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 21:00
Unibet (NL)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 20:58
Grosvenor3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 21:00
betPARX3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 21:00
Bet Victor3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -5.87%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -7.45%E -3.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -3.46%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 21:00
Marathon Bet3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -5.87%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.02%EV -7.06%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 20:59
Codere (IT)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 20:59
Unibet (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 20:59
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 21:00
Everygame3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 20:59
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.61%E -3.67%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 20:59
LeoVegas3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 20:57
LeoVegas (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 20:58
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -8.61%E -3.67%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 20:59
William Hill3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.45%E -3.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 20:59
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -6.47%E -2.09%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.45%E -3.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 20:59
GTbets3.06I 32.68%NM 30.32%EV -7.68%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.02%EV -5.11%E -2.10%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.66%EV -9.34%E -3.19%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 20:58
Betsson3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -7.98%E -2.62%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.38%EV -5.89%E -2.43%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.17%EV -7.80%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 21:00
TABtouch3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -7.98%E -2.62%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.36%EV -7.45%E -3.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.70%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 20:59
Virgin Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -7.98%E -2.62%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -8.61%E -3.67%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -11.82%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 21:00
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%EV -7.98%E -2.62%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.53%EV -8.61%E -3.67%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -11.82%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 20:59
Ladbrokes (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.78%E -1.11%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 21:00
Neds3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.78%E -1.11%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 20:59
Ladbrokes (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.78%E -1.11%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 20:59
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 20:59
PlayUp3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 21:00
888sport (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 21:00
BoyleSports3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.56%E -4.59%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 20:59
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -10.56%E -4.59%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 20:59
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.49%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -12.50%E -5.56%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 21:00
BetMGM2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -0.836%E -0.328%K -0.539%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 20:59
PointsBet (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 20:59
Bet Right2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.72%E -1.93%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 20:59
Betr (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.45%EV -6.67%E -2.78%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 20:59
Winamax (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -8.61%E -3.67%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 20:59
Betclic (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.30%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.87%EV -10.56%E -4.59%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 20:57
Unibet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.04%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.39%EV -12.50%E -5.56%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.56%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-12 20:59
PMU (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -11.00%E -3.73%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -10.56%E -4.59%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -14.91%E -5.42%K -8.52%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-12 21:00
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -12.50%E -4.31%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.86%EV -7.45%E -3.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 21:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 29.38%EV -13.11%E -4.55%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.46%EV -14.45%E -6.57%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.17%EV -18.62%E -7.08%K -11.43%G +0.000%18.2%2026-04-12 20:58
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.15%EV -15.52%E -5.54%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.77%EV -12.50%E -5.56%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.08%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-12 20:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-04-12 21:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-04-12 21:00
Smarkets3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.18%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.35%1.3%2026-04-12 21:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%1.4%2026-04-12 21:00
Kalshi3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.19%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-04-12 21:00