L’École des cotes

Fluminense v Chapecoense

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-26 23:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Fluminense (Local)

Prévision 73.27%1.36cote équitable
EV -2.56%
Avantage -1.92%
Kelly -7.74%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.33

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
69.93%73.24%73.18%74.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.211.271.271.3382.64%78.76%78.74%75.19%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Chapecoense (Visiteur)

Prévision 9.27%10.79cote équitable
EV +8.90%
Avantage +0.758%
Kelly +0.828%
Croissance +0.074%

avec la cote maximale 11.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
8.10%9.26%9.35%11.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.2510.0010.0011.7513.79%10.01%10.00%8.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.47%5.73cote équitable
EV -2.20%
Avantage -0.392%
Kelly -0.477%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.63%17.50%17.47%19.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.245.255.6022.22%19.09%19.05%17.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag1.27I 78.74%NM 74.91%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 8.10%EV +8.90%E +0.758%K +0.828%G +0.074%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.99%EV -2.20%E -0.392%K -0.477%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-20 22:50
BetOnline.ag1.27I 78.74%NM 74.91%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 8.10%EV +8.90%E +0.758%K +0.828%G +0.074%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.99%EV -2.20%E -0.392%K -0.477%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-20 22:49
BetUS1.27I 78.74%NM 74.91%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 8.10%EV +8.90%E +0.758%K +0.828%G +0.074%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.99%EV -2.20%E -0.392%K -0.477%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 02:20
Pinnacle1.27I 78.74%NM 74.78%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.59I 8.63%NM 8.19%EV +7.42%E +0.640%K +0.701%G +0.052%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.02%EV -2.54%E -0.456%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-24 02:05
1xBet1.30I 76.92%NM 73.96%EV -4.75%E -3.66%K -15.84%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.74%EV +1.95%E +0.177%K +0.195%G +0.004%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.29%EV -2.89%E -0.521%K -0.635%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Coolbet1.29I 77.52%NM 73.97%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.68%EV +1.95%E +0.177%K +0.195%G +0.004%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 18:15
Bovada1.27I 78.74%NM 74.16%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +1.95%E +0.177%K +0.195%G +0.004%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.28%EV -4.82%E -0.884%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 02:00
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 73.98%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +1.95%E +0.177%K +0.195%G +0.004%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 12:44
GTbets1.29I 77.52%NM 73.14%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.87I 9.20%NM 8.68%EV +0.747%E +0.069%K +0.076%G +0.001%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.18%EV -9.36%E -1.80%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 00:10
Svenska Spel1.33I 75.19%NM 73.07%EV -2.56%E -1.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.26%EV -2.68%E -0.255%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.67%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-20 14:19
ATG (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 73.07%EV -2.56%E -1.92%K -7.74%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.26%EV -2.68%E -0.255%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.67%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-20 14:20
DraftKings1.27I 78.74%NM 73.97%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -2.68%E -0.255%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 23:34
Marathon Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV -2.68%E -0.255%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:24
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -2.68%E -0.255%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 18:59
Betr (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.73%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.80%EV -2.68%E -0.255%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 18:14
Bet Victor1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -2.68%E -0.255%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 15:09
Tipico (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.56%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -2.68%E -0.255%K -0.282%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -9.18%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-20 06:50
Casumo1.29I 77.52%NM 72.87%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 14:20
Grosvenor1.29I 77.52%NM 72.87%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 14:19
Unibet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.87%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 14:19
Unibet (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 72.87%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 14:19
Unibet (NL)1.29I 77.52%NM 72.87%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 14:20
betPARX1.29I 77.52%NM 72.87%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 14:20
Unibet (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 11:49
BetRivers1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -6.22%E -4.86%K -22.21%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 10:54
Bet Right1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -6.22%E -4.86%K -22.21%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 19:00
PointsBet (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -6.22%E -4.86%K -22.21%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 23:54
BoyleSports1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 19:19
LeoVegas (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.05%EV -6.95%E -5.47%K -25.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 10:55
PlayUp1.28I 78.13%NM 72.25%EV -6.22%E -4.86%K -22.21%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 23:35
LeoVegas1.26I 79.37%NM 73.08%EV -7.68%E -6.10%K -29.55%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.71%EV -9.18%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 14:20
TABtouch1.25I 80.00%NM 73.24%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.61%EV -9.18%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 10:54
PMU (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.24%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.61%EV -9.18%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 10:55
888sport1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 20:35
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 20:34
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 20:35
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 20:35
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.42%E -6.73%K -33.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 71.78%EV -10.61%E -8.70%K -48.25%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.76%EV -7.32%E -0.732%K -0.813%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -21.41%E -4.76%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-21 18:59
NordicBet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.96%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.60%EV -9.17%E -0.936%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -5.69%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 20:15
Betsson1.29I 77.52%NM 72.96%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.60%EV -9.17%E -0.936%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -5.69%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 20:15
Codere (IT)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.12%EV -6.22%E -4.86%K -22.21%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.55%EV -9.17%E -0.936%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -5.69%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 11:55
BetMGM1.31I 76.34%NM 72.86%EV -4.02%E -3.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.79%EV -9.63%E -0.988%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 12:24
Coral1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -4.75%E -3.66%K -15.84%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV -11.95%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 12:28
Fanatics1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -11.95%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 12:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -4.75%E -3.66%K -15.84%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -11.95%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 20:40
FanDuel1.24I 80.65%NM 73.75%EV -9.15%E -7.38%K -38.12%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -11.95%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 18:59
Virgin Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 72.96%EV -9.88%E -8.03%K -42.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -11.95%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.60%EV -10.93%E -2.14%K -2.67%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-20 14:19
LiveScore Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 72.96%EV -9.88%E -8.03%K -42.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -11.95%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.60%EV -10.93%E -2.14%K -2.67%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-20 14:19
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 72.86%EV -10.61%E -8.70%K -48.25%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -11.95%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -12.67%E -2.53%K -3.17%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-21 19:00
Neds1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -4.75%E -3.66%K -15.84%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -14.27%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -9.18%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 20:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.91%EV -4.75%E -3.66%K -15.84%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -14.27%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -9.18%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 20:40
Betway1.29I 77.52%NM 72.58%EV -5.49%E -4.25%K -18.92%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -16.58%E -1.84%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -3.94%E -0.717%K -0.876%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-20 16:34
Unibet (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 71.33%EV -9.88%E -8.03%K -42.97%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.20%EV -20.29%E -2.36%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.47%EV -17.04%E -3.59%K -4.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-23 11:50
Betclic (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 71.38%EV -9.88%E -8.03%K -42.97%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -21.22%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -16.17%E -3.37%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-23 11:53
Sky Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 71.55%EV -10.61%E -8.70%K -48.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.27%EV -21.22%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.18%EV -16.17%E -3.37%K -4.25%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-23 23:30
Winamax (DE)1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -9.15%E -7.38%K -38.12%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -25.85%E -3.23%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -10.93%E -2.14%K -2.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-23 11:49
Winamax (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 69.93%EV -11.35%E -9.38%K -54.04%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.67%EV -32.80%E -4.52%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.40%EV -19.66%E -4.27%K -5.46%G +0.000%18.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.32I 75.76%NM 75.01%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%1.0%2026-04-24 02:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 75.01%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%1.0%2026-04-24 02:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.32I 75.76%NM 75.01%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.37%1.0%2026-04-24 02:30
Smarkets1.29I 77.52%NM 74.99%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.27%3.4%2026-04-24 02:15
Matchbook1.29I 77.52%NM 74.97%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.06%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.97%3.4%2026-04-24 03:00
Kalshi1.28I 78.13%NM 75.02%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.64%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.33%4.1%2026-04-24 02:10