La escuela de los momios

Cruzeiro v Vitoria

Inicio: 2026-04-01 23:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cruzeiro (Local)

Predicción 61.96%1.61momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.935%
Kelly -2.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.89%61.86%61.94%63.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.441.511.501.5969.44%66.27%66.67%62.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Vitoria (Visitante)

Predicción 14.46%6.92momio equitativo
EV +4.83%
Ventaja +0.666%
Kelly +0.773%
Crecimiento +0.037%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.29%14.58%14.41%16.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.406.436.507.2518.52%15.56%15.38%13.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.58%4.24momio equitativo
EV -0.953%
Ventaja -0.227%
Kelly -0.298%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.27%23.57%23.64%25.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.903.904.2030.30%25.64%25.64%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 63.45%EV -5.82%E -3.83%K -11.20%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.30%EV +4.83%E +0.666%K +0.773%G +0.037%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.24%EV -2.13%E -0.514%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-01 22:55
ATG (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 61.66%EV -2.73%E -1.74%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.83%EV +1.21%E +0.173%K +0.202%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-01 22:30
Svenska Spel1.57I 63.69%NM 61.66%EV -2.73%E -1.74%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.83%EV +1.21%E +0.173%K +0.202%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-01 22:30
Coolbet1.54I 64.94%NM 62.31%EV -4.58%E -2.98%K -8.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.71%EV +1.21%E +0.173%K +0.202%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-01 19:50
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 62.46%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.65%EV +1.21%E +0.173%K +0.202%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-01 22:34
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.21%E +0.173%K +0.202%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 22:44
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 62.35%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +1.21%E +0.173%K +0.202%G +0.002%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-01 22:29
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -8.30%E -5.61%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV +1.21%E +0.173%K +0.202%G +0.002%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-01 22:30
LowVig.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 62.40%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.74%EV +0.491%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-01 22:54
BetOnline.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 62.40%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.74%EV +0.491%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-01 22:55
Unibet (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:20
Grosvenor1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:20
Unibet (NL)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:20
Unibet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:19
Casumo1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:20
betPARX1.53I 65.36%NM 61.57%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:30
Bovada1.52I 65.79%NM 61.92%EV -5.82%E -3.83%K -11.20%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-01 22:47
BetUS1.50I 66.67%NM 62.61%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:55
BetAnything1.50I 66.67%NM 62.61%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:54
BetRivers1.51I 66.23%NM 61.88%EV -6.44%E -4.27%K -12.63%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -2.40%E -0.356%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 22:20
Tipico (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.64%EV -8.92%E -6.07%K -18.98%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.74%EV -3.12%E -0.466%K -0.548%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-01 22:55
1xBet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.78%EV -2.73%E -1.74%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.66I 15.02%NM 14.56%EV -3.70%E -0.556%K -0.654%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-01 22:55
DraftKings1.53I 65.36%NM 61.81%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-01 22:30
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 22:34
Marathon Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.44%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:55
Bet Right1.50I 66.67%NM 62.09%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 22:54
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.90%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-01 22:55
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 61.52%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-01 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.52%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-01 22:10
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 61.32%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -11.56%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-01 22:20
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -10.78%E -7.49%K -24.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -6.02%E -0.926%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 22:45
Codere (IT)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.18%EV -5.82%E -3.83%K -11.20%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.77%EV -7.46%E -1.17%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.05%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-01 22:55
NordicBet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.64%EV -5.82%E -3.83%K -11.20%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -7.46%E -1.17%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-01 22:44
TABtouch1.48I 67.57%NM 61.30%EV -8.30%E -5.61%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.18%EV -7.46%E -1.17%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -12.74%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:20
LiveScore Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 61.62%EV -9.54%E -6.53%K -20.74%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.06%EV -7.46%E -1.17%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -12.74%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 22:20
Virgin Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 61.62%EV -9.54%E -6.53%K -20.74%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.06%EV -7.46%E -1.17%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -12.74%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-01 22:20
GTbets1.59I 62.89%NM 59.82%EV -1.49%E -0.935%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.15%EV -9.20%E -1.46%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-01 13:05
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 61.05%EV -5.82%E -3.83%K -11.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -9.63%E -1.54%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 22:55
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.55%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.77%EV -9.63%E -1.54%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-01 22:55
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.45%EV -3.96%E -2.56%K -7.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -0.953%E -0.227%K -0.298%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 22:35
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 22:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 22:34
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 22:35
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-01 22:54
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 22:34
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 22:34
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 22:35
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 22:35
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -10.78%E -7.49%K -24.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -13.25%E -2.21%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -15.10%E -4.20%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-01 22:29
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -3.96%E -2.56%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -14.69%E -2.49%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-01 19:09
Betclic (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 61.64%EV -10.16%E -7.01%K -22.58%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.15%EV -14.69%E -2.49%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.21%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-01 22:52
Unibet (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 61.13%EV -9.54%E -6.53%K -20.74%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.39%EV -16.14%E -2.78%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-01 22:55
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -16.86%E -2.93%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 22:34
Winamax (DE)1.48I 67.57%NM 61.70%EV -8.30%E -5.61%K -17.30%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.02%EV -17.58%E -3.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-01 22:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.89%EV -10.78%E -7.49%K -24.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.42%EV -20.47%E -3.72%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.70%EV -22.18%E -6.72%K -9.64%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-01 21:00
Winamax (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.79%EV -10.16%E -7.01%K -22.58%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.32%EV -21.92%E -4.06%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.89%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-01 22:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.77%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.09%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.14%0.5%2026-04-01 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.77%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.09%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.14%0.5%2026-04-01 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.77%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.09%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.14%0.5%2026-04-01 22:54
Matchbook1.55I 64.52%NM 63.92%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-04-01 22:55
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.41%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.85%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%1.1%2026-04-01 22:55
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 63.57%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.97%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%1.5%2026-04-01 22:54