The School of Odds

Cruzeiro v Mirassol

2026-08-09 14:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cruzeiro (Local)

Prediction 53.71%1.86fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.56%53.64%53.66%54.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.721.731.7962.50%58.17%57.80%55.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Mirassol (Visit)

Prediction 19.47%5.14fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -0.533%
Kelly -0.667%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.82%19.47%19.59%21.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.644.605.0025.00%21.55%21.74%20.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.82%3.73fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -0.955%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.11%26.89%26.74%27.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.453.6031.25%29.32%28.99%27.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.79I 55.87%NM 53.59%EV -3.86%E -2.16%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.62%EV -4.81%E -0.983%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV -3.97%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-27 19:55
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.50%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -7.53%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-27 14:38
SportsBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.39%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -8.51%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 14:40
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -4.93%E -2.79%K -6.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -2.67%E -0.533%K -0.667%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-27 14:55
Bet Right1.76I 56.82%NM 52.83%EV -5.47%E -3.11%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -10.45%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-27 14:40
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.01%E -3.43%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -10.45%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-27 15:25
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.01%E -3.43%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -10.45%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-27 15:25
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.01%E -3.43%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -10.45%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-27 15:25
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.01%E -3.43%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -10.45%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-27 15:25
Marathon Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.58%EV -6.54%E -3.76%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.53%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.79%EV -6.66%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 19:49
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.17%EV -7.62%E -4.43%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -3.64%E -0.735%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 19:55
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 54.17%EV -7.62%E -4.43%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -3.64%E -0.735%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 19:55
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -8.16%E -4.77%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -10.45%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-27 14:40
Codere (IT)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -8.69%E -5.11%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -4.61%E -0.942%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 15:35
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 54.13%EV -8.69%E -5.11%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -8.51%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-27 15:35
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -8.69%E -5.11%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -14.35%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-27 15:09
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 51.56%EV -10.30%E -6.17%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -22.13%E -5.53%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.91%EV -14.17%E -4.43%K -6.44%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-27 14:40
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.00%EV -12.99%E -8.02%K -20.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.88%EV -14.35%E -3.26%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.58%EV -12.99%E -8.02%K -20.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.29%EV -12.40%E -2.76%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -14.17%E -4.43%K -6.44%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-27 15:35
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 53.85%EV -14.06%E -8.79%K -23.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.04%EV -16.29%E -3.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.11%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-27 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 53.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.49%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.23%16.6%2026-07-27 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10