Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruzeiro v Corinthians

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruzeiro (Local)

Prediction 54.69%1.83fair odd
EV -0.471%
Edge -0.259%
Kelly -0.574%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.55%54.70%54.76%56.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.701.711.8265.79%58.69%58.48%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Corinthians (Visit)

Prediction 18.85%5.30fair odd
EV +3.70%
Edge +0.672%
Kelly +0.822%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.16%18.73%18.82%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.944.905.5023.26%20.26%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.46%3.78fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.568%
Kelly -0.778%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.47%26.57%26.42%28.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.503.503.7032.26%28.61%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cruzeiro (Local): 54.69%; Corinthians (Visit): 18.85%; Draw: 26.46%. For Corinthians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV +3.70%E +0.672%K +0.822%G +0.030%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.39%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 22:40
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.86%EV -7.58%E -4.49%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV +3.70%E +0.672%K +0.822%G +0.030%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.39%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-25 22:39
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.73%EV +2.76%E +0.506%K +0.619%G +0.017%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.06%EV -5.54%E -1.55%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-25 22:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.05%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.48%EV +2.76%E +0.506%K +0.619%G +0.017%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.05%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.48%EV +2.76%E +0.506%K +0.619%G +0.017%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 22:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.66%EV -9.77%E -5.92%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -0.073%E -0.014%K -0.017%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-25 22:50
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.53%EV -6.49%E -3.79%K -9.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -1.02%E -0.193%K -0.239%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-25 16:39
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -1.02%E -0.193%K -0.239%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.39%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 22:52
BetUS🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -1.02%E -0.193%K -0.239%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.39%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 22:55
BetAnything🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -1.02%E -0.193%K -0.239%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.39%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 22:55
Coolbet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.63%EV -3.75%E -2.13%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.67%EV -2.90%E -0.563%K -0.699%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-25 10:55
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%EV -0.471%E -0.259%K -0.574%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.92%EV -3.47%E -0.677%K -0.841%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.84%EV -7.92%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-25 22:54
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.28%EV -4.85%E -2.78%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.06I 19.76%NM 18.66%EV -4.60%E -0.909%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.06%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-25 22:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.57%EV -3.21%E -1.81%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV -2.10%E -0.568%K -0.778%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-25 22:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.57%EV -3.21%E -1.81%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV -2.10%E -0.568%K -0.778%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-25 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.75%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 22:15
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 08:45
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -6.49%E -3.79%K -9.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 22:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.54%EV -6.49%E -3.79%K -9.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.80%EV -7.92%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-25 22:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.06%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-25 22:40
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.56%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -8.72%E -2.53%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-25 22:15
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 22:54
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -9.77%E -5.92%K -15.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -5.73%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -12.68%E -3.84%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-25 22:39
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -6.67%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-25 22:55
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -6.67%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-25 22:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:55
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:55
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:55
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:54
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.68%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:14
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:30
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -8.72%E -2.53%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-25 22:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.85%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.90%EV -7.61%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-25 22:40
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.03%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.70%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-25 22:30
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.18%EV -4.85%E -2.78%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-25 22:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.32%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-25 22:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.32%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-25 22:55
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -14.01%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 22:54
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -14.01%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 22:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -14.01%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 22:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -14.01%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 22:54
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.71%EV -8.67%E -5.19%K -12.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.69%EV -9.50%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -14.01%E -4.31%K -6.23%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-25 22:39
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -10.44%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 22:39
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -10.44%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.35%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -10.44%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:15
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.74%EV -8.13%E -4.84%K -11.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -10.44%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -6.07%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 22:55
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.03%E -4.14%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -10.44%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-25 22:14
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.57%EV -9.77%E -5.92%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -10.44%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-25 22:29
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.57%EV -8.67%E -5.19%K -12.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -11.39%E -2.42%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.39%E -2.11%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-25 22:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.66%EV -9.77%E -5.92%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -11.39%E -2.42%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.14%EV -8.72%E -2.53%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-25 22:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.66%EV -9.77%E -5.92%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -11.39%E -2.42%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.14%EV -8.72%E -2.53%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-25 22:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.12%EV -11.41%E -7.04%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.00%EV -11.39%E -2.42%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -8.72%E -2.53%K -3.56%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-25 22:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 55.14%EV -16.88%E -11.10%K -32.46%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 17.83%EV -11.39%E -2.42%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.03%EV -17.98%E -5.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%19.3%2026-02-25 22:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.49%EV -10.31%E -6.29%K -16.12%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.22%EV -12.33%E -2.65%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-25 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -8.13%E -4.84%K -11.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -13.27%E -2.88%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -4.75%E -1.32%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-25 22:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.32%EV -10.86%E -6.66%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -13.27%E -2.88%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.43%EV -11.36%E -3.39%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-25 22:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.96%EV -11.41%E -7.04%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.33%EV -18.93%E -4.40%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -10.04%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%14.4%2026-02-25 22:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 56.23%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.87%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.90%0.5%2026-02-25 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.23%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.87%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.90%0.5%2026-02-25 22:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.07%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.11%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-02-25 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.07%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.11%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-02-25 22:55
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 55.84%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.24%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.92%1.8%2026-02-25 22:55