Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruzeiro v Bragantino-SP

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 21:32 UTC

Final: Cruzeiro 2–1 Bragantino-SP

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruzeiro (Local)

Prediction 47.20%2.12fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.57%47.37%47.19%51.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.941.952.0555.87%51.49%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 24.71%4.05fair odd
EV +11.18%
Edge +2.48%
Kelly +3.19%
Growth +0.357%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.23%24.52%24.78%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.903.804.5029.41%25.65%26.32%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.10%3.56fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -0.665%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.06%28.11%28.02%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.303.303.5035.71%30.33%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cruzeiro (Local): 47.20%; Bragantino-SP (Visit): 24.71%; Draw: 28.10%. For Bragantino-SP (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -8.91%E -4.62%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV +11.18%E +2.48%K +3.19%G +0.357%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -3.07%E -0.889%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 21:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -8.91%E -4.62%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV +11.18%E +2.48%K +3.19%G +0.357%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -3.07%E -0.889%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 21:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.08%EV -11.74%E -6.28%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV +11.18%E +2.48%K +3.19%G +0.357%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.69%EV -3.07%E -0.889%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 21:30
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -11.74%E -6.28%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +8.71%E +1.98%K +2.56%G +0.223%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 21:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -11.74%E -6.28%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +8.71%E +1.98%K +2.56%G +0.223%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 21:29
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -11.74%E -6.28%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +8.71%E +1.98%K +2.56%G +0.223%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 21:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -11.74%E -6.28%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +8.71%E +1.98%K +2.56%G +0.223%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 21:29
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -11.74%E -6.28%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +8.71%E +1.98%K +2.56%G +0.223%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 21:29
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.36%EV -12.69%E -6.86%K -14.92%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV +7.47%E +1.72%K +2.23%G +0.167%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 21:20
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.29%EV -13.63%E -7.45%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV +6.24%E +1.45%K +1.89%G +0.118%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 21:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.21%EV -14.57%E -8.05%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.38%EV +5.00%E +1.18%K +1.54%G +0.077%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 21:29
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.33%EV -8.91%E -4.62%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV +3.77%E +0.897%K +1.18%G +0.044%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 21:29
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.76%EV -12.69%E -6.86%K -14.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV +3.77%E +0.897%K +1.18%G +0.044%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 21:30
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -12.69%E -6.86%K -14.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV +3.77%E +0.897%K +1.18%G +0.044%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 21:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.36%EV -15.52%E -8.67%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV +3.77%E +0.897%K +1.18%G +0.044%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-12 21:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.82%EV -14.57%E -8.05%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV +1.30%E +0.316%K +0.418%G +0.005%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-12 21:30
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.14%EV -3.25%E -1.58%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.92%EV -0.186%E -0.046%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.94%EV -6.16%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 21:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.62%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.69%EV -0.680%E -0.169%K -0.225%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.69%EV -6.72%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 21:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.62%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.69%EV -0.680%E -0.169%K -0.225%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.69%EV -6.72%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 21:30
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.62%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.69%EV -0.680%E -0.169%K -0.225%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.69%EV -6.72%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 21:29
GTbets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.37%EV -6.55%E -3.31%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV -1.17%E -0.294%K -0.391%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.68%EV -2.79%E -0.805%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 21:29
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -1.17%E -0.294%K -0.391%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -5.88%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 21:29
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -1.17%E -0.294%K -0.391%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 21:29
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -7.97%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -1.17%E -0.294%K -0.391%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 21:29
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.54%EV -3.72%E -1.82%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.43%EV -1.92%E -0.482%K -0.645%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.03%EV -2.79%E -0.805%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 21:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.09%EV -8.44%E -4.35%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.80%EV -3.15%E -0.804%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.10%EV -6.72%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.64%E -0.935%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 21:29
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 21:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.42%EV -6.08%E -3.05%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 21:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.35%EV -6.55%E -3.31%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -5.88%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 21:29
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.97%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 21:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -8.91%E -4.62%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 21:30
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 21:30
Bet Right🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.32%EV -7.02%E -3.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -5.88%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 21:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 21:30
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -1.66%E -0.475%K -0.665%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 21:30
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 21:29
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -4.66%E -2.31%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 21:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -7.97%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 21:29
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -9.82%E -2.69%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 21:28
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 21:29
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 21:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -5.61%E -2.80%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 21:29
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -7.97%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 21:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.74%EV -11.74%E -6.28%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-12 21:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.48%EV -11.27%E -5.99%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.72%EV -9.53%E -2.96%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-12 21:21
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.03%EV -7.49%E -3.82%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -13.53%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-12 21:30
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -7.97%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -13.53%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 21:30
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.85%E -5.16%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -13.53%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-12 21:30
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -9.85%E -5.16%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -13.53%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-12 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.97%E -4.08%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.53%E -3.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.90%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-12 21:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.99%EV -12.21%E -6.57%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.70%EV -16.00%E -4.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.31%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-12 21:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.57%EV -9.85%E -5.16%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.04%EV -16.00%E -4.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.40%EV -21.33%E -7.62%K -11.85%G +0.000%17.5%2026-04-12 21:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-04-12 21:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44%0.5%2026-04-12 21:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-04-12 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-04-12 21:30
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-04-12 21:30