The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Coritiba v Mirassol

2026-09-06 14:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coritiba (Local)

Prediction 42.12%2.37fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.31%42.04%42.16%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.182.202.3049.50%45.98%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mirassol (Visit)

Prediction 28.67%3.49fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.09%28.72%28.61%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.183.203.3333.90%31.48%31.25%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.20%3.42fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.20%29.24%29.23%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.133.3333.90%31.96%32.00%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Coritiba (Local): 42.12%; Mirassol (Visit): 28.67%; Draw: 29.20%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.33, with an expected value of -2.75%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -3.12%E -1.36%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 13:04
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.31%EV -4.38%E -1.93%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.84%EV -4.52%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.84%EV -2.75%E -0.826%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-25 17:24
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 12:39
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.23%E -2.32%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-25 13:24
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -6.49%E -2.92%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-25 12:59
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.69%EV -6.49%E -2.92%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -8.01%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-25 13:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.30%EV -6.91%E -3.13%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.85%EV -7.10%E -2.19%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.85%EV -5.38%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 17:24
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.63%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-25 12:36
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-25 13:18
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-25 13:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-25 13:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.33%E -3.33%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-25 13:18
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.40%EV -7.75%E -3.54%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-25 12:39
MyBookie.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.29%EV -7.75%E -3.54%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.59%EV -7.10%E -2.19%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.12%EV -7.13%E -2.24%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-25 12:38
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -8.17%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -6.55%E -2.05%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-25 17:59
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-25 12:39
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.44%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-25 12:38
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -11.54%E -5.50%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -13.98%E -4.66%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -12.39%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-25 12:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -13.65%E -6.66%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -13.98%E -4.66%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -9.47%E -3.05%K -4.51%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-25 12:38
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -13.65%E -6.66%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.36%EV -15.41%E -5.22%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.40%EV -10.93%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-25 12:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.05%EV -13.65%E -6.66%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -13.98%E -4.66%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -13.85%E -4.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-25 12:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 42.65%EV -14.91%E -7.38%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.44%EV -13.12%E -4.33%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.91%EV -12.97%E -4.35%K -6.55%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-25 12:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 42.53%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.39%2.94I 34.01%NM 30.09%13.1%2026-08-25 20:14
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 41.81%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.90%2.94I 34.01%NM 29.29%16.1%2026-08-25 12:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-25 13:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-25 13:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-25 12:54