The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Chapecoense v Bahia

2026-08-16 14:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chapecoense (Local)

Prediction 27.67%3.61fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -0.900%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.15%27.66%27.68%28.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.303.5033.33%30.28%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bahia (Visit)

Prediction 45.35%2.21fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.26%45.36%45.27%46.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.022.042.1253.48%49.58%49.14%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.798%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.20%26.98%27.05%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.393.403.6031.25%29.50%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chapecoense (Local): 27.67%; Bahia (Visit): 45.35%; Draw: 26.98%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -2.87%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -3.15%E -0.900%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.29%EV -3.86%E -1.82%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.03%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 14:20
LeoVegas3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -3.15%E -0.900%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -11.57%E -5.93%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 14:40
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.77%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -2.87%E -0.798%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 12:54
Coolbet3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.77%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -2.87%E -0.798%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 12:55
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.77%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 12:55
Marathon Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.29%EV -6.58%E -3.19%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -7.73%E -2.26%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 14:15
Codere (IT)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -8.39%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 12:54
NordicBet3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.30%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -8.39%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.22%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 16:40
Betsson3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.30%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -8.39%E -4.16%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.22%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 16:40
888sport3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:54
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:54
888sport (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:55
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:55
Bet Right3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -10.07%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -4.77%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 12:54
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -10.07%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.30%E -4.65%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-02 12:55
Unibet (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.21%EV -11.45%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.58%EV -13.38%E -7.01%K -14.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.21%EV -13.66%E -4.27%K -6.21%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-02 12:54
Betclic (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 26.95%EV -11.45%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 46.11%EV -15.20%E -8.13%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.95%EV -13.66%E -4.27%K -6.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 12:54
Winamax (DE)3.15I 31.75%NM 27.82%EV -12.84%E -4.08%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.63%EV -12.93%E -6.73%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-02 12:54
Winamax (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 27.89%EV -14.22%E -4.59%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 45.51%EV -13.84%E -7.28%K -15.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.60%EV -12.32%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-02 12:54
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 28.77%EV -16.99%E -5.66%K -8.49%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.26%EV -11.57%E -5.93%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.97%EV -13.66%E -4.27%K -6.21%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-02 12:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.