Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.64
assuming max odds 6.06
assuming max odds 4.10
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bragantino-SP (Local): 59.33%; Grêmio (Visit): 16.71%; Draw: 23.96%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.99. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.24%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.87%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 6.06I 16.50%NM 15.91%EV +1.24%E +0.205%K +0.245%G +0.003% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 24.22%EV -4.64%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-23 18:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.06%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.22%EV +0.238%E +0.040%K +0.048%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV -1.77%E -0.431%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.02%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.24%EV -0.597%E -0.100%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -2.48%E -0.611%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-23 18:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.02%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.24%EV -0.597%E -0.100%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -2.48%E -0.611%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-23 18:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.02%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.24%EV -0.597%E -0.100%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -2.48%E -0.611%K -0.809%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-23 18:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.59%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -1.43%E -0.243%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-23 18:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.59%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -1.43%E -0.243%K -0.292%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.19%EV -2.69%E -1.64%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.89I 16.98%NM 16.48%EV -1.60%E -0.272%K -0.327%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.33%EV -4.40%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-23 18:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.08%EV -2.69%E -1.64%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.70%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-23 18:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.82%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.40%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.38%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 18:42 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.00%E -7.33%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-23 18:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 18:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 18:48 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 18:48 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.83%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.05%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -8.00%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.42%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.06%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.53I 18.08%NM 16.98%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.96%EV -6.08%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 16:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.29%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-23 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.03%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-23 18:42 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.10%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.40%EV -9.79%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.65%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -9.79%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.78%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.08%EV -11.46%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.94%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV -11.46%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.94%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV -11.46%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.95%EV -11.59%E -7.78%K -23.66%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.85%EV -11.46%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.20%EV -7.76%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -1.77%E -0.431%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 14:48 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.13%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.76%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.94%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 18:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.84%EV -11.00%E -7.33%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%EV -13.13%E -2.52%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%EV -12.55%E -3.44%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.84%EV -11.00%E -7.33%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%EV -13.13%E -2.52%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%EV -12.55%E -3.44%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.28%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.90%EV -14.80%E -2.90%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-23 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.90%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.11%EV -14.22%E -3.97%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-23 18:38 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.04%EV -9.81%E -6.46%K -18.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.95%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-23 18:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-23 18:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.77%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 1.3% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 1.3% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 1.3% | 2026-08-23 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51% | 1.3% | 2026-08-23 18:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42% | 1.7% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.84% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49% | 2.1% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |