Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bragantino-SP v Grêmio

Inicio: 2026-08-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Bragantino-SP 1–0 Grêmio

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Predicción 59.33%1.69momio equitativo
EV -2.69%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -4.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.90%59.19%59.36%61.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.491.571.571.6467.11%63.65%63.69%60.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Grêmio (Visitante)

Predicción 16.71%5.99momio equitativo
EV +1.24%
Ventaja +0.205%
Kelly +0.245%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.69%16.81%16.69%18.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.515.506.0620.00%18.14%18.18%16.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.96%4.17momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -0.431%
Kelly -0.570%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.82%23.99%23.95%25.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.583.863.904.1027.93%25.89%25.64%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Bragantino-SP (Local): 59.33%; Grêmio (Visitante): 16.71%; Empate: 23.96%. Para Grêmio (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.99. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.06, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.24%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.87%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000%6.06I 16.50%NM 15.91%EV +1.24%E +0.205%K +0.245%G +0.003%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.22%EV -4.64%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-23 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.06%EV -3.88%E -2.39%K -6.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.22%EV +0.238%E +0.040%K +0.048%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV -1.77%E -0.431%K -0.570%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-23 18:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.02%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.24%EV -0.597%E -0.100%K -0.121%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -2.48%E -0.611%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.02%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.24%EV -0.597%E -0.100%K -0.121%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -2.48%E -0.611%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 18:19
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.02%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.24%EV -0.597%E -0.100%K -0.121%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.74%EV -2.48%E -0.611%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 18:19
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.59%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -1.43%E -0.243%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 18:40
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.59%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -1.43%E -0.243%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 18:39
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.19%EV -2.69%E -1.64%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.89I 16.98%NM 16.48%EV -1.60%E -0.272%K -0.327%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.33%EV -4.40%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-23 18:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.08%EV -2.69%E -1.64%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.70%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 18:54
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 18:24
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.82%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.40%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 18:44
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.38%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 18:42
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -11.00%E -7.33%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -3.10%E -0.535%K -0.647%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 18:14
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 18:29
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 18:48
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.02%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 18:48
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.83%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:34
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -3.94%E -0.685%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:34
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 18:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.05%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -8.00%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 18:39
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.42%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:55
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:55
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -6.44%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:54
GTbets🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.06%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 16.98%EV -7.61%E -1.38%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.96%EV -6.08%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 16:44
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 18:54
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.29%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 18:39
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.03%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 18:42
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 18:34
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 18:39
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -8.12%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 18:34
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.10%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.40%EV -9.79%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 18:54
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.65%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -9.79%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 18:34
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.78%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.97%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.08%EV -11.46%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-23 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.94%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV -11.46%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-23 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.94%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV -11.46%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-23 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.95%EV -11.59%E -7.78%K -23.66%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.85%EV -11.46%E -2.16%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.20%EV -7.76%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-23 18:39
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -4.47%E -2.78%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -1.77%E -0.431%K -0.570%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-23 14:48
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 18:55
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.13%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -7.76%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 18:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.94%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -12.29%E -2.34%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.84%EV -11.00%E -7.33%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%EV -13.13%E -2.52%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%EV -12.55%E -3.44%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-23 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.84%EV -11.00%E -7.33%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%EV -13.13%E -2.52%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.18%EV -12.55%E -3.44%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-23 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.28%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.97%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.90%EV -14.80%E -2.90%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 18:39
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 18:54
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 13:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.90%EV -6.25%E -3.96%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.11%EV -14.22%E -3.97%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 18:38
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.04%EV -9.81%E -6.46%K -18.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.95%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 18:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 18:50
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.77%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -16.47%E -3.29%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -13.75%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-23 18:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.3%2026-08-23 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.3%2026-08-23 18:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.3%2026-08-23 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.57%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.3%2026-08-23 18:40
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.72%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.7%2026-08-23 18:44
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.84%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%2.1%2026-08-23 18:55