Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bragantino-SP v Corinthians

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 21:30 UTC

Final: Bragantino-SP 0–2 Corinthians

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Prediction 42.16%2.37fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%42.27%42.20%44.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.3148.78%45.65%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Corinthians (Visit)

Prediction 27.06%3.70fair odd
EV +8.24%
Edge +2.06%
Kelly +2.75%
Growth +0.226%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%26.96%26.97%28.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.463.494.0031.25%28.87%28.69%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.78%3.25fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -0.970%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.71%30.77%30.83%32.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.003.1534.72%33.14%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bragantino-SP (Local): 42.16%; Corinthians (Visit): 27.06%; Draw: 30.78%. For Corinthians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.15%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV +8.24%E +2.06%K +2.75%G +0.226%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.58%EV -8.29%E -2.78%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-09 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -1.23%E -0.338%K -0.465%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -3.06%E -0.970%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -1.23%E -0.338%K -0.465%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -3.06%E -0.970%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 21:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.38%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.77%EV -3.36%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.38%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.77%EV -3.36%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 21:19
BetAnything🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.38%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.77%EV -3.36%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 21:20
Coolbet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.78%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.75%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 21:20
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 21:24
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -11.45%E -5.45%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 21:25
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -11.45%E -5.45%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 21:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -11.45%E -5.45%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -11.45%E -5.45%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 21:25
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -13.56%E -6.62%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 21:10
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.91%EV -2.60%E -1.13%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.35%EV -4.21%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%EV -3.06%E -0.970%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 21:25
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 18:35
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 21:19
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 21:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 21:20
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 21:17
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 21:15
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 21:18
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 21:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -8.08%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 21:05
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -8.08%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 21:00
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -8.08%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 21:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -8.08%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 21:00
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -8.08%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 20:59
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -8.08%E -3.71%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 21:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.21%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 21:20
GTbets🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.74%EV -7.66%E -3.50%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.97%EV -6.10%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.29%EV -4.90%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 13:55
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 20:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.16%EV -5.55%E -2.48%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 18:35
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 21:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 21:15
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 21:18
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.87%EV -6.39%E -2.88%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.94%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.19%EV -8.29%E -2.78%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 21:05
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.87%EV -6.39%E -2.88%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.94%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.19%EV -8.29%E -2.78%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 21:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.29%EV -7.46%E -2.18%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.22%EV -7.98%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 20:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 18:35
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 18:25
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 21:15
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -9.77%E -4.56%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -9.21%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 21:05
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -9.77%E -4.56%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -9.21%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 21:00
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -11.45%E -5.45%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.30%EV -10.61%E -5.00%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.77%EV -9.35%E -2.79%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.93%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 20:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.57%EV -13.56%E -6.62%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -9.35%E -2.79%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 21:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.51%EV -10.61%E -5.00%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.15%EV -10.16%E -3.06%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.34%EV -8.60%E -2.89%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 21:05
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 21:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 21:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 21:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.37%E -3.95%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 21:25
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -11.45%E -5.45%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.75%E -3.71%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 21:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.51%EV -12.30%E -5.91%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.70%EV -11.37%E -3.95%K -6.05%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 21:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.51%EV -12.30%E -5.91%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.70%EV -11.37%E -3.95%K -6.05%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 21:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.51%EV -12.30%E -5.91%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.70%EV -11.37%E -3.95%K -6.05%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 21:05
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -12.06%E -3.71%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 21:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.26%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -12.06%E -3.71%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -6.13%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -11.45%E -5.45%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -13.41%E -4.19%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -7.67%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%1.0%2026-08-09 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%1.0%2026-08-09 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%1.0%2026-08-09 21:25
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.35%3.64I 27.47%NM 27.11%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.55%1.4%2026-08-09 21:20
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.10%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.27%1.5%2026-08-09 21:25
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.36%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.93%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.71%1.8%2026-08-09 21:25

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