The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bragantino-SP v Chapecoense

2026-10-28 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Prediction 72.98%1.37fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -3.94%
Kelly -17.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%72.98%72.98%75.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.261.251.3081.30%79.59%79.68%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chapecoense (Visit)

Prediction 10.73%9.32fair odd
EV +12.69%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.169%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.33%10.73%10.73%10.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.189.2510.5011.76%10.89%10.81%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.29%6.14fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +0.665%
Kelly +0.788%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%16.29%16.29%16.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.765.786.4018.18%17.36%17.32%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bragantino-SP (Local): 72.98%; Chapecoense (Visit): 10.73%; Draw: 16.29%. For Chapecoense (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.32. 7 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 10.50, producing a positive expected value of +12.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 75.36%EV -5.13%E -3.94%K -17.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.33%EV +12.69%E +1.21%K +1.34%G +0.169%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%EV +4.25%E +0.665%K +0.788%G +0.034%2.1%2026-10-18 22:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 75.36%EV -5.13%E -3.94%K -17.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.33%EV +12.69%E +1.21%K +1.34%G +0.169%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%EV +4.25%E +0.665%K +0.788%G +0.034%2.1%2026-10-18 23:04
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.08%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +1.95%E +0.206%K +0.230%G +0.004%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -5.52%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 22:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.08%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +1.95%E +0.206%K +0.230%G +0.004%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -5.52%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 22:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.08%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +1.95%E +0.206%K +0.230%G +0.004%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -5.52%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 22:39
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.08%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +1.95%E +0.206%K +0.230%G +0.004%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -5.52%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 22:39
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.08%EV -8.05%E -6.39%K -30.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +1.95%E +0.206%K +0.230%G +0.004%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -5.52%E -0.952%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 22:39
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -8.78%E -7.02%K -35.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -3.41%E -0.379%K -0.426%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -6.33%E -1.10%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 22:59
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.98%EV -8.78%E -7.02%K -35.11%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -8.78%E -1.03%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -8.78%E -1.57%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-18 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -9.51%E -7.67%K -39.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -8.78%E -1.03%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -10.41%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 22:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -9.51%E -7.67%K -39.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -8.78%E -1.03%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -10.41%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 23:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -9.51%E -7.67%K -39.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -8.78%E -1.03%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -10.41%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 23:04
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -9.51%E -7.67%K -39.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -8.78%E -1.03%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -10.41%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 23:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.08%EV -10.24%E -8.32%K -44.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.58%EV -8.78%E -1.03%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -10.41%E -1.89%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 37.26%1.68I 59.52%NM 31.27%1.67I 59.88%NM 31.46%90.3%2026-10-19 01:20