The School of Odds

Botafogo v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-07-16 22:30 UTC

Final: Botafogo 2–1 Santos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 42.91%2.33fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.46%42.91%42.88%44.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.202.2849%46%45%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 29.31%3.41fair odd
EV +2.60%
Edge +0.742%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.64%29.31%29.35%31.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.223.213.5034%31%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.78%3.60fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.795%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.78%27.78%27.77%29.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.353.5032%30%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.13%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.74%EV +2.60%E +0.742%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-16 22:25
Svenska Spel2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -6.46%E -2.96%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.74%EV +2.60%E +0.742%K +1.04%G +0.027%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.74%EV -2.78%E -0.795%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-16 22:20
1xBet2.26I 44.25%NM 42.89%EV -3.02%E -1.34%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.26%EV +0.546%E +0.159%K +0.225%G +0.001%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.85%EV -6.67%E -1.99%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-16 22:25
LowVig.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 44.97%EV -9.03%E -4.26%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.79%EV +0.546%E +0.159%K +0.225%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -2.78%E -0.795%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-16 19:19
BetOnline.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 44.97%EV -9.03%E -4.26%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.79%EV +0.546%E +0.159%K +0.225%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -2.78%E -0.795%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-16 19:20
Unibet (NL)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.09%EV -8.17%E -3.82%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -0.333%E -0.098%K -0.139%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 22:25
Casumo2.14I 46.73%NM 44.09%EV -8.17%E -3.82%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -0.333%E -0.098%K -0.139%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 22:25
Unibet (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.09%EV -8.17%E -3.82%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -0.333%E -0.098%K -0.139%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 22:25
GTbets2.12I 47.17%NM 44.61%EV -9.03%E -4.26%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.06%EV -1.21%E -0.360%K -0.512%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.33%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 15:30
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.04%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -1.80%E -0.537%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.69%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 22:10
Grosvenor2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -9.03%E -4.26%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -1.80%E -0.537%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-16 22:20
Unibet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -9.03%E -4.26%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -1.80%E -0.537%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-16 22:20
betPARX2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -9.03%E -4.26%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -1.80%E -0.537%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-16 22:20
TABtouch2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -9.89%E -4.71%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -1.80%E -0.537%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 22:20
BetAnything2.28I 43.86%NM 42.66%EV -2.17%E -0.950%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.39%EV -2.97%E -0.898%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.95%EV -3.34%E -0.959%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-16 22:25
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 22:20
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 19:00
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 22:25
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 21:55
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 43.72%EV -8.17%E -3.82%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-16 22:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -10.75%E -5.17%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-16 22:20
LiveScore Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 44.29%EV -11.61%E -5.63%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -3.26%E -0.989%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.07%EV -9.73%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-16 22:25
Pinnacle2.27I 44.05%NM 42.63%EV -2.59%E -1.14%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.41%EV -3.56%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.96%EV -3.89%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-16 22:25
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 21:39
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 22:00
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 21:59
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -12.03%E -5.87%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 22:20
Virgin Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -12.03%E -5.87%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 22:20
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.96%EV -6.89%E -3.17%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.95%EV -5.61%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -7.78%E -2.34%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 22:00
Codere (IT)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:20
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:15
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:15
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-16 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-16 22:00
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-16 21:44
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-16 22:24
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.74%E -3.60%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-16 21:40
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -7.74%E -3.60%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-16 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -9.89%E -4.71%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-16 22:15
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -9.89%E -4.71%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-16 22:10
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.46%E -2.96%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.66%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 22:10
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.46%E -2.96%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.66%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -6.95%E -2.07%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 22:10
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.51%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.98%EV -8.54%E -2.74%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-16 22:10
betano_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.45%E -1.53%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 22:25
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-16 22:10
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.12%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-16 22:15
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.12%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-16 22:15
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.12%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-16 22:15
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.12%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-16 22:15
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -9.89%E -4.71%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.13%E -2.94%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-16 21:55
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.99%EV -9.89%E -4.71%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.41%EV -10.01%E -3.26%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.61%EV -9.17%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-16 22:15
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -10.59%E -3.47%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-16 22:25
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -9.89%E -4.71%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -10.59%E -3.47%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-16 22:15
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -3.45%E -1.53%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-16 22:20
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.56%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-16 22:20
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -5.60%E -2.54%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-16 22:24
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.89%E -4.71%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.34%E -2.53%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-16 22:20
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -12.03%E -5.87%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -12.06%E -4.02%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -11.12%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-16 22:15
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -12.03%E -5.87%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -14.99%E -5.17%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -9.73%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-16 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-07-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-07-16 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-07-16 22:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.03%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-07-16 22:25
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.85%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.16%1.5%2026-07-16 22:25
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%3.1%2026-07-16 22:20