The School of OddsBotafogo v Santos
Head to Head
Option 1: Botafogo (Local)
Odds
1.7656.82%Min
1.8853.22%Mean
1.8753.62%Median
1.9850.51%Max
Consensus probabilities
47.73%2.095Min
50.25%1.990Max
48.78%2.050Mean
48.74%2.052Median
48.73%2.052IQM
48.81%2.049Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.98 under the IQM model: 48.73%
EV -3.52%Edge -1.78%Kelly -3.59%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Santos (Visit)
Odds
3.4029.41%Min
3.7726.51%Mean
3.8026.32%Median
3.9325.45%Max
Consensus probabilities
23.34%4.284Min
25.41%3.935Max
24.37%4.104Mean
24.58%4.069Median
24.50%4.082IQM
24.39%4.099Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.93 under the IQM model: 24.50%
EV -3.73%Edge -0.949%Kelly -1.27%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.1032.26%Min
3.3529.88%Mean
3.3030.30%Median
3.7027.03%Max
Consensus probabilities
25.50%3.921Min
28.16%3.552Max
26.85%3.724Mean
26.68%3.748Median
26.78%3.734IQM
26.79%3.733Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.70 under the IQM model: 26.78%
EV -0.923%Edge -0.250%Kelly -0.342%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Botafogo (Local) ▼ | Santos (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98I 50.51% NM 48.54%EV -3.52% E -1.78% K -3.59% G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45% NM 24.46%EV -3.73% E -0.949% K -1.27% G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09% NM 27.00%EV -4.67% E -1.31% K -1.83% G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-05 09:30 |
| Bovada | 1.95I 51.28% NM 48.80%EV -4.98% E -2.56% K -5.25% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 24.40%EV -4.46% E -1.14% K -1.54% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.80%EV -4.94% E -1.39% K -1.94% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 09:33 |
| Coral | 1.95I 51.28% NM 48.61%EV -4.98% E -2.56% K -5.25% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 24.31%EV -4.46% E -1.14% K -1.54% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -6.28% E -1.79% K -2.51% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-01 02:48 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.95I 51.28% NM 48.30%EV -4.98% E -2.56% K -5.25% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.79%EV -6.91% E -1.82% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.91%EV -6.28% E -1.79% K -2.51% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 02:50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.47% E -2.82% K -5.82% G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77% NM 24.54%EV -4.95% E -1.28% K -1.72% G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70% NM 26.38%EV -3.33% E -0.923% K -1.28% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 17:50 |
| Neds | 1.94I 51.55% NM 48.08%EV -5.47% E -2.82% K -5.82% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.88%EV -8.14% E -2.17% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99% NM 27.04%EV -7.62% E -2.21% K -3.11% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-01 02:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.94I 51.55% NM 48.08%EV -5.47% E -2.82% K -5.82% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.88%EV -8.14% E -2.17% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99% NM 27.04%EV -7.62% E -2.21% K -3.11% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-01 02:49 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.92I 52.08% NM 48.60%EV -6.45% E -3.36% K -7.01% G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18% NM 24.43%EV -6.42% E -1.68% K -2.28% G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90% NM 26.97%EV -7.35% E -2.12% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-05 09:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.82%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.54%EV -6.91% E -1.82% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.64%EV -6.28% E -1.79% K -2.51% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-01 02:50 |
| Fanatics | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.82%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.54%EV -6.91% E -1.82% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.64%EV -6.28% E -1.79% K -2.51% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-03 03:25 |
| Bet Right | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.68%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.13%EV -9.36% E -2.53% K -3.47% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.19%EV -4.94% E -1.39% K -1.94% G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-24 04:09 |
| DraftKings | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.66%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.78%EV -8.14% E -2.17% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.55%EV -6.28% E -1.79% K -2.51% G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 03:29 |
| Bet Victor | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.66%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.78%EV -8.14% E -2.17% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.55%EV -6.28% E -1.79% K -2.51% G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-03 15:19 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 48.55%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 23.78%EV -4.46% E -1.14% K -1.54% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 27.68%EV -10.30% E -3.07% K -4.38% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-01 15:40 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 47.73%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.64%EV -9.36% E -2.53% K -3.47% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.63%EV -11.63% E -3.53% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-01 15:20 |
| 888sport | 1.91I 52.36% NM 47.73%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.64%EV -9.36% E -2.53% K -3.47% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.63%EV -11.63% E -3.53% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-01 15:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 47.73%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.64%EV -9.36% E -2.53% K -3.47% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.63%EV -11.63% E -3.53% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-01 15:20 |
| William Hill | 1.91I 52.36% NM 47.73%EV -6.93% E -3.63% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.64%EV -9.36% E -2.53% K -3.47% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.63%EV -11.63% E -3.53% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-01 15:20 |
| SportsBet | 1.90I 52.63% NM 49.66%EV -7.42% E -3.91% K -8.25% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.83%EV -6.91% E -1.82% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.50%EV -0.923% E -0.250% K -0.342% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-24 04:10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.90I 52.63% NM 48.41%EV -7.42% E -3.91% K -8.25% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.53%EV -8.14% E -2.17% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.06%EV -8.96% E -2.63% K -3.73% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-03 21:20 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.87I 53.48% NM 49.35%EV -8.88% E -4.75% K -10.21% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.28%EV -6.91% E -1.82% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.37%EV -6.28% E -1.79% K -2.51% G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-25 21:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.86I 53.76% NM 48.44%EV -9.37% E -5.04% K -10.90% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.40%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.16%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-25 03:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.86I 53.76% NM 48.44%EV -9.37% E -5.04% K -10.90% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.40%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.16%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-25 03:30 |
| Unibet | 1.86I 53.76% NM 48.44%EV -9.37% E -5.04% K -10.90% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.40%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.16%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-25 03:39 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.96%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.16%EV -11.81% E -3.28% K -4.54% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 25.88%EV -6.28% E -1.79% K -2.51% G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-24 04:09 |
| Grosvenor | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:30 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:29 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:29 |
| Casumo | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:29 |
| TABtouch | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:29 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:29 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 03:30 |
| BetRivers | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 06:40 |
| betPARX | 1.85I 54.05% NM 48.58%EV -9.86% E -5.33% K -11.60% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 23.34%EV -5.69% E -1.48% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.08%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-06-25 08:59 |
| FanDuel | 1.83I 54.64% NM 50.25%EV -10.83% E -5.92% K -13.05% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.20%EV -6.91% E -1.82% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -3.60% E -1.00% K -1.39% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-24 04:09 |
| BoyleSports | 1.83I 54.64% NM 48.28%EV -10.83% E -5.92% K -13.05% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 24.54%EV -11.81% E -3.28% K -4.54% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.18%EV -12.97% E -3.99% K -5.77% G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-06-30 10:49 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.80I 55.56% NM 48.32%EV -12.29% E -6.83% K -15.37% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 24.50%EV -13.04% E -3.67% K -5.11% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 27.18%EV -14.31% E -4.47% K -6.51% G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-07-01 15:39 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80I 55.56% NM 48.00%EV -12.29% E -6.83% K -15.37% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.41%EV -16.71% E -4.92% K -6.96% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 26.59%EV -12.97% E -3.99% K -5.77% G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-06-24 04:10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.78I 56.18% NM 48.43%EV -13.27% E -7.45% K -17.01% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 23.94%EV -11.81% E -3.28% K -4.54% G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05% NM 27.63%EV -16.45% E -5.27% K -7.76% G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-07-01 22:40 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.78I 56.18% NM 48.34%EV -13.27% E -7.45% K -17.01% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 23.90%EV -11.81% E -3.28% K -4.54% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 27.76%EV -16.99% E -5.48% K -8.09% G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-07-01 22:40 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.76I 56.82% NM 47.95%EV -14.24% E -8.09% K -18.74% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 24.82%EV -16.71% E -4.92% K -6.96% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 27.22%EV -16.99% E -5.48% K -8.09% G +0.000% | 18.5% | 2026-07-01 15:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.73I 57.80% NM 47.40%EV -15.70% E -9.08% K -21.51% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 24.12%EV -16.71% E -4.92% K -6.96% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 28.48%EV -22.88% E -7.94% K -12.17% G +0.000% | 21.9% | 2026-06-24 04:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Botafogo (Local) | Santos (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.00I 50.00% | 3.95I 25.32% | 3.60I 27.78% | 3.1% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.00I 50.00% | 3.95I 25.32% | 3.60I 27.78% | 3.1% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.00I 50.00% | 3.95I 25.32% | 3.60I 27.78% | 3.1% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Smarkets | 1.93I 51.81% | 3.90I 25.64% | 3.55I 28.17% | 5.6% | 2026-07-05 14:00 |