La escuela de los momios

Botafogo v Corinthians

Inicio: 2026-05-17 19:00 UTC

Final: Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Predicción 35.76%2.80momio equitativo
EV -0.589%
Ventaja -0.212%
Kelly -0.331%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.70%35.76%35.74%37.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.582.602.7841.67%38.70%38.46%35.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Corinthians (Visitante)

Predicción 33.88%2.95momio equitativo
EV +1.64%
Ventaja +0.546%
Kelly +0.818%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.43%33.90%33.82%35.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.772.763.0041.67%36.08%36.23%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.36%3.29momio equitativo
EV -2.84%
Ventaja -0.888%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.22%30.34%30.44%31.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.063.103.2037.04%32.71%32.26%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.63I 38.02%NM 37.06%EV -5.95%E -2.26%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.49%EV +1.64%E +0.546%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.46%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-17 18:55
ATG (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 37.06%EV -5.95%E -2.26%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.49%EV +1.64%E +0.546%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.46%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-17 18:55
GTbets2.62I 38.17%NM 36.74%EV -6.31%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.19%EV -1.75%E -0.604%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.08%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-17 18:34
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -1.75%E -0.604%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -1.75%E -0.604%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -1.75%E -0.604%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -1.75%E -0.604%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -1.75%E -0.604%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 18:55
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -1.75%E -0.604%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.53%EV -7.03%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -3.45%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -4.36%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 18:44
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -3.45%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 18:29
LeoVegas (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -3.45%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 18:55
LeoVegas2.48I 40.32%NM 37.27%EV -11.32%E -4.56%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.43%EV -3.45%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.30%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 18:55
Pinnacle2.74I 36.50%NM 35.31%EV -2.02%E -0.737%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.07%EV -3.78%E -1.33%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.62%EV -4.06%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 18:50
1xBet2.78I 35.97%NM 34.87%EV -0.589%E -0.212%K -0.331%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.26%EV -4.12%E -1.46%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.87%EV -4.66%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 18:55
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -3.45%E -1.28%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 18:45
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -3.45%E -1.28%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 18:45
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -7.03%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 18:30
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 18:36
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 18:30
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.45%E -1.28%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 18:55
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.45%E -1.28%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 18:55
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.03%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:35
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 18:25
BetRivers2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -4.36%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 18:45
PMU (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -12.39%E -5.06%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 18:55
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -12.39%E -5.06%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -5.14%E -1.84%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 18:55
Bovada2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -4.17%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.07%EV -6.49%E -2.35%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 18:48
BetUS2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -4.17%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.07%EV -6.49%E -2.35%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 18:55
BetAnything2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -4.17%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.07%EV -6.49%E -2.35%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 18:50
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -7.03%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 18:35
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 18:44
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -8.31%E -2.75%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 18:34
Bet Right2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.36%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 18:25
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 18:36
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -8.81%E -3.46%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 18:36
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 18:25
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.03%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -10.43%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 18:40
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 36.94%EV -13.10%E -5.39%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.64%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -10.43%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-17 18:55
Virgin Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 36.94%EV -13.10%E -5.39%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.64%EV -6.83%E -2.48%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.43%EV -10.43%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-17 18:55
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -4.17%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.40%EV -7.85%E -2.89%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 18:35
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -4.17%E -1.55%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.40%EV -7.85%E -2.89%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 18:35
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -6.31%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -8.53%E -3.16%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -2.84%E -0.888%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 18:53
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -3.45%E -1.28%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -8.53%E -3.16%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 18:35
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -5.24%E -1.98%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -8.53%E -3.16%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 18:36
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.31%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.53%E -3.16%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 18:40
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.31%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.53%E -3.16%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 18:40
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.31%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.53%E -3.16%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 18:40
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.31%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.53%E -3.16%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 18:39
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -6.31%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -8.53%E -3.16%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.59%EV -12.56%E -4.36%K -6.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 18:55
Betclic (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.43%EV -12.39%E -5.06%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.31%EV -9.20%E -3.43%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -10.43%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 18:35
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.19%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -10.22%E -3.86%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -7.40%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-17 18:35
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.28%EV -7.03%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.89%EV -10.90%E -4.14%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -14.99%E -5.35%K -8.33%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-17 18:40
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.03%E -2.70%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -11.24%E -4.29%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -5.88%E -1.90%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 18:35
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -14.18%E -5.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -11.91%E -4.58%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-17 18:35
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.30%EV -14.18%E -5.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.17%EV -13.61%E -5.34%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.53%EV -10.43%E -3.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-17 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 33.70%EV -10.60%E -4.24%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.10%EV -18.69%E -7.79%K -13.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.20%EV -18.02%E -6.68%K -10.60%G +0.000%18.7%2026-05-17 18:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.40%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67%0.2%2026-05-17 18:55
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Smarkets2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.45%1.0%2026-05-17 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.45%1.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.45%1.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%1.9%2026-05-17 18:45