The School of Odds

Bahia v Vasco da Gama

2026-08-09 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Bahia (Local)

Prediction 52.79%1.89fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -4.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%52.66%52.69%54.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.771.8359.88%56.95%56.66%54.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 21.39%4.68fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -0.832%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.85%21.51%21.33%22.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.804.194.224.5026.32%23.89%23.67%22.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.82%3.87fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.500%
Kelly -0.679%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.97%25.83%25.98%26.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.553.8030.30%28.30%28.17%26.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.41%EV -3.39%E -1.85%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.46%EV -4.39%E -0.981%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.13%EV -5.26%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-27 17:20
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV -3.74%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.28%EV -1.90%E -0.500%K -0.679%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 15:10
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -5.88%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -3.19%E -0.851%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-27 14:50
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -14.44%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-27 15:25
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -14.44%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-27 15:25
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -14.44%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-27 15:25
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -4.97%E -2.76%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -14.44%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-27 15:25
SportsBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.39%EV -6.03%E -3.39%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -5.88%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -1.90%E -0.500%K -0.679%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 14:51
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.38%EV -6.03%E -3.39%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.43%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.19%EV -8.10%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 17:15
Codere (IT)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.35%EV -6.55%E -3.70%K -8.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -8.02%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -8.36%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-27 14:50
Bet Right1.76I 56.82%NM 52.73%EV -7.08%E -4.02%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -5.77%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-27 14:50
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -7.61%E -4.35%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.85%EV -4.81%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -8.36%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-27 19:15
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -7.61%E -4.35%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.85%EV -4.81%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -8.36%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-27 19:15
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -7.61%E -4.35%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -12.30%E -3.00%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-27 14:50
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -9.72%E -5.69%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -5.88%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -4.48%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-27 14:49
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -10.25%E -6.03%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-27 15:09
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.85%EV -10.25%E -6.03%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.60%EV -16.58%E -4.25%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -10.94%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 51.55%EV -10.78%E -6.38%K -15.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.05%EV -15.51%E -3.93%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-27 14:50
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 51.45%EV -11.31%E -6.73%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.75%EV -18.72%E -4.93%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.80%EV -13.52%E -4.04%K -5.75%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-27 16:50
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 51.40%EV -11.83%E -7.09%K -17.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.59%EV -18.72%E -4.93%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.01%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-27 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10