Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Bahia v Vasco da Gama

Início: 2026-08-09 19:00 UTC

Final: Bahia 0–0 Vasco da Gama

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Bahia (Local)

Previsão 46.73%2.14odd justa
EV -2.80%
Vantagem -1.34%
Kelly -2.59%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.08

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.87%46.78%46.65%48.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.871.982.002.0853.48%50.54%50.00%48.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Vasco da Gama (Visitante)

Previsão 25.93%3.86odd justa
EV +2.94%
Vantagem +0.741%
Kelly +0.990%
Crescimento +0.029%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.97

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.37%25.97%26.01%27.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.353.623.603.9729.85%27.64%27.78%25.19%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.34%3.66odd justa
EV -1.58%
Vantagem -0.440%
Kelly -0.609%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.91%27.25%27.34%28.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.403.403.6032.26%29.39%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Bahia (Local): 46.73%; Vasco da Gama (Visitante): 25.93%; Empate: 27.34%. Para Vasco da Gama (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.86. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.97, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.94%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.58%EV -4.67%E -2.29%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.45%EV +2.94%E +0.741%K +0.990%G +0.029%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.97%EV -5.14%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-09 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.13%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.37%EV +2.42%E +0.613%K +0.821%G +0.020%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.13%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.37%EV +2.42%E +0.613%K +0.821%G +0.020%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 18:10
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.62%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -0.950%E -0.249%K -0.337%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.45%EV -5.14%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 05:20
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.87%E -4.55%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.47%E -0.386%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 18:10
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -9.34%E -4.81%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -1.47%E -0.386%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -9.34%E -4.81%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -1.47%E -0.386%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -9.34%E -4.81%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -1.47%E -0.386%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -9.34%E -4.81%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -1.47%E -0.386%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 18:10
betPARX🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -9.34%E -4.81%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -1.47%E -0.386%K -0.524%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 18:10
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.78%EV -3.26%E -1.58%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.55%EV -1.73%E -0.456%K -0.619%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.67%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.46%EV -2.80%E -1.34%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -2.76%E -0.737%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.77%EV -4.86%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 18:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.46%EV -2.80%E -1.34%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -2.76%E -0.737%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.77%EV -4.86%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 18:35
BetAnything🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.46%EV -2.80%E -1.34%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -2.76%E -0.737%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.77%EV -4.86%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 18:35
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -5.60%E -2.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -2.76%E -0.737%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 18:45
GTbets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.71%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.72%EV -3.80%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.58%EV -1.86%E -0.517%K -0.717%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-09 16:15
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -4.06%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.87%E -4.55%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -4.06%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 18:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.87%E -4.55%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -4.06%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 18:45
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.57%EV -4.20%E -2.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.16%EV -5.36%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-09 18:34
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.50%EV -8.40%E -4.29%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.36%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -5.68%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 18:44
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -10.27%E -5.35%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -5.36%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 18:10
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.57%EV -10.74%E -5.62%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -5.36%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 18:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.84%EV -7.00%E -3.52%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -6.14%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -4.67%E -2.29%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 18:40
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 14:05
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 18:54
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 18:53
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 16:05
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -8.87%E -4.55%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -7.94%E -4.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.47%EV -11.68%E -6.18%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 18:10
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.02%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -7.95%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -2.95%E -0.831%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 16:05
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -5.60%E -2.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.95%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 18:40
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -5.60%E -2.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.95%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -12.61%E -6.74%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -7.95%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 18:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -12.61%E -6.74%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -7.95%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.37%EV -12.61%E -6.74%K -14.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -7.95%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.52%E -3.91%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-09 18:10
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.20%E -2.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -1.58%E -0.440%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 12:25
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -1.58%E -0.440%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 12:25
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -5.60%E -2.77%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -8.42%E -2.51%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 18:40
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 12:24
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 12:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 12:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 12:25
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -8.87%E -4.55%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 18:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -8.87%E -4.55%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.15%E -3.43%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.33%EV -11.68%E -6.18%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -9.25%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 18:35
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -10.54%E -3.06%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -1.58%E -0.440%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 12:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -10.54%E -3.06%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -1.58%E -0.440%K -0.609%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 12:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.39%EV -9.34%E -4.81%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -10.54%E -3.06%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.52%EV -10.61%E -3.24%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 18:38
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.53%E -3.27%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -11.84%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -1.58%E -0.440%K -0.609%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.20%EV -7.47%E -3.77%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.84%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 18:34
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -10.74%E -5.62%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.84%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -7.05%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-09 18:39
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.92%EV -10.74%E -5.62%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -11.84%E -3.48%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -15.25%E -4.92%K -7.26%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-09 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.15%EV -9.34%E -4.81%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -13.14%E -3.92%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -9.79%E -2.97%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 18:34
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.63%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.11%0.2%2026-08-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-08-09 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-08-09 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-08-09 18:45
Kalshi◎2.11I 47.39%NM 47.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%3.64I 27.47%NM 27.24%0.8%2026-08-09 18:40
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.40%1.4%2026-08-09 18:45