Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bahia v Chapecoense

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 22:30 UTC

Final: Bahia 2–0 Chapecoense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bahia (Local)

Prediction 67.34%1.49fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -5.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.62%67.37%67.17%69.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4575.19%72.04%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chapecoense (Visit)

Prediction 13.11%7.63fair odd
EV +8.13%
Edge +0.986%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 8.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.50%13.02%13.28%14.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.127.008.2516.67%14.05%14.29%12.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.56%5.11fair odd
EV +2.87%
Edge +0.545%
Kelly +0.673%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 5.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.44%19.62%19.55%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.714.705.2623.09%21.21%21.28%19.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.74%EV -7.08%E -5.13%K -18.62%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.50%EV +8.13%E +0.986%K +1.12%G +0.091%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 22:04
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 68.94%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.99%EV +5.51%E +0.685%K +0.782%G +0.043%5.06I 19.76%NM 19.07%EV -1.05%E -0.207%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 22:19
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +4.86%E +0.607%K +0.694%G +0.034%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 21:53
betano_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +4.86%E +0.607%K +0.694%G +0.034%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 21:53
FanDuel1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -9.77%E -7.29%K -28.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV +4.86%E +0.607%K +0.694%G +0.034%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 22:03
BetOnline.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.19%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.64%EV -1.04%E -0.138%K -0.159%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.17%EV -2.61%E -0.524%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 21:35
LowVig.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.19%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.64%EV -1.04%E -0.138%K -0.159%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.17%EV -2.61%E -0.524%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 21:34
BetAnything1.40I 71.43%NM 68.19%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.64%EV -1.04%E -0.138%K -0.159%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.17%EV -2.61%E -0.524%K -0.656%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 21:34
Svenska Spel1.44I 69.44%NM 67.30%EV -3.03%E -2.11%K -6.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.92%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.78%EV -4.17%E -0.852%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-17 15:29
ATG (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 67.30%EV -3.03%E -2.11%K -6.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.92%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.78%EV -4.17%E -0.852%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-17 15:29
Marathon Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -4.17%E -0.852%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 21:55
Bet Right1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -7.75%E -5.66%K -20.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.11%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 22:04
PointsBet (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -7.75%E -5.66%K -20.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.11%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 22:04
Betr (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.39%EV -7.08%E -5.13%K -18.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-17 22:04
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -7.11%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 21:13
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.16%EV -9.10%E -6.74%K -25.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 22:09
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -10.44%E -7.85%K -31.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -12.00%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -10.44%E -7.85%K -31.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -1.70%E -0.226%K -0.261%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -12.00%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:20
NordicBet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -5.06%E -3.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -3.01%E -0.407%K -0.470%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -12.97%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 22:25
Betsson1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -5.06%E -3.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -3.01%E -0.407%K -0.470%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -12.97%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 22:24
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 66.17%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.78%EV -4.98%E -0.686%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -13.95%E -3.17%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 22:24
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.41%EV -3.03%E -2.11%K -6.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.66%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.92%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 17:29
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.41%EV -3.03%E -2.11%K -6.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.66%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.92%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 17:29
Bovada1.43I 69.93%NM 66.84%EV -3.71%E -2.59%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.65%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.51%EV -4.17%E -0.852%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 22:24
BetUS1.43I 69.93%NM 66.84%EV -3.71%E -2.59%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.65%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.51%EV -4.17%E -0.852%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 22:24
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.69%EV -2.36%E -1.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 08:10
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.57%EV -3.71%E -2.59%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 17:30
Codere (IT)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.17%E -0.852%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 22:24
DraftKings1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.17%E -0.852%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 21:24
Unibet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -5.06%E -3.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 21:44
Casumo1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -5.06%E -3.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 21:44
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -5.06%E -3.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 21:44
Unibet (NL)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -5.06%E -3.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 21:44
Grosvenor1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -5.06%E -3.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 21:44
betPARX1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -5.06%E -3.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 21:45
LeoVegas1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 22:24
Fanatics1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -7.08%E -5.13%K -18.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -2.22%E -0.444%K -0.555%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 15:32
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.11%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 22:24
TABtouch1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 21:44
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -5.73%E -4.09%K -14.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -8.09%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 21:39
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -7.08%E -5.13%K -18.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -7.11%E -1.50%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 22:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -7.08%E -5.13%K -18.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 21:39
LiveScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 22:05
PMU (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 22:04
Virgin Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 22:04
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 22:05
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.00%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-17 21:35
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -10.44%E -7.85%K -31.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -8.25%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -15.32%E -3.54%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-17 22:04
GTbets1.43I 69.93%NM 66.04%EV -3.71%E -2.59%K -8.62%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.79%EV -10.22%E -1.49%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.18%EV -8.48%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 17:19
1xBet1.44I 69.44%NM 67.36%EV -3.03%E -2.11%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.83I 14.64%NM 14.20%EV -10.48%E -1.53%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.44%EV +2.87%E +0.545%K +0.673%G +0.019%3.1%2026-07-17 22:23
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -4.38%E -3.09%K -10.43%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -13.49%E -2.04%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 17:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -4.38%E -3.09%K -10.43%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -13.49%E -2.04%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 17:29
Betclic (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -9.10%E -6.74%K -25.99%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.63%EV -13.49%E -2.04%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.76%EV -11.02%E -2.42%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-17 22:24
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.81%E -2.28%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:24
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.81%E -2.28%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:24
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.81%E -2.28%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:24
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -8.42%E -6.19%K -23.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.81%E -2.28%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 22:24
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 66.05%EV -9.77%E -7.29%K -28.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.83%EV -16.12%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.12%EV -13.95%E -3.17%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-17 22:24
Winamax (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 66.46%EV -7.75%E -5.66%K -20.94%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -18.08%E -2.89%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-17 22:24
Winamax (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.74%EV -9.77%E -7.29%K -28.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.68%EV -21.36%E -3.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%EV -12.00%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-17 22:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.65%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.83%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53%0.4%2026-07-17 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.79%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%0.9%2026-07-17 22:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.79%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%0.9%2026-07-17 22:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.79%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%0.9%2026-07-17 22:19
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 69.94%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.72%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34%1.4%2026-07-17 22:24
Kalshi1.41I 70.92%NM 69.57%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.78%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.9%2026-07-17 22:25