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Atletico Mineiro v Fluminense

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 41.61%2.40fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.68%41.64%41.44%42.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.032.192.202.3149.26%45.63%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fluminense (Visit)

Prediction 29.34%3.41fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.40%29.22%29.29%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.203.2934.48%31.99%31.25%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.05%3.44fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.07%29.13%29.27%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.133.153.3033.33%31.94%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Mineiro (Local): 41.61%; Fluminense (Visit): 29.34%; Draw: 29.05%. For Fluminense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.29, with an expected value of -3.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.52%EV -3.87%E -1.68%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.15%EV -3.48%E -1.06%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.33%EV -5.01%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-31 16:40
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.29%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.65%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -5.59%E -1.72%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 15:50
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.29%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.14%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 15:50
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.14%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 15:48
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.14%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 16:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -7.62%E -2.40%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 16:39
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.49%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 16:04
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.37%E -2.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.49%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 16:05
MyBookie.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.04%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 15:44
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:15
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.12%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:15
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -11.99%E -4.00%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.95%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 15:48
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.14%EV -9.28%E -4.26%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -7.59%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.04%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 15:45
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.05%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.04%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-01 06:45
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -14.92%E -5.14%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.43%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-31 15:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.44%EV -14.69%E -7.17%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.49%EV -13.45%E -4.56%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.07%EV -9.95%E -3.21%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-31 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -14.69%E -7.17%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.87%EV -11.99%E -4.00%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.87%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.43%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-31 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.03%EV -14.69%E -7.17%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -14.92%E -5.14%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.25%EV -11.40%E -3.74%K -5.56%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-31 15:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 42.49%EV -15.53%E -7.65%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.75%EV -11.99%E -4.00%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.75%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.43%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-31 15:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 40.75%2.94I 34.01%NM 30.07%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.18%13.1%2026-08-31 21:45