The School of Odds
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Atletico Mineiro v Fluminense

2026-09-13 20:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 41.44%2.41fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.68%41.53%41.44%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.202.3146.51%44.79%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fluminense (Visit)

Prediction 29.23%3.42fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.40%29.09%29.23%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.193.203.2934.48%31.39%31.25%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.32%3.41fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -0.978%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.59%29.38%29.32%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.183.3033.33%31.88%31.45%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atletico Mineiro (Local): 41.44%; Fluminense (Visit): 29.23%; Draw: 29.32%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -3.23%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.52%EV -4.27%E -1.85%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.15%EV -3.82%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.33%EV -4.11%E -1.26%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-31 16:40
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.99%E -1.54%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.69%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 15:50
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.45%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.23%E -0.978%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 15:50
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.45%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.23%E -0.978%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 15:48
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.45%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -6.75%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 16:39
MyBookie.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.45%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.16%E -1.93%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 15:44
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.45%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.03%E -4.01%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:15
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.45%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.03%E -4.01%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.45%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.03%E -4.01%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -6.45%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -12.03%E -4.01%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 16:15
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.90%E -5.07%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -15.22%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -12.03%E -4.01%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-31 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.