The School of Odds

Atletico Mineiro v Bahia

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 22:29 UTC

Final: Atletico Mineiro 1–1 Bahia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Atletico Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 50.46%1.98fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.824%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.14%50.44%50.40%51.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.751.851.851.9557%54%54%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Bahia (Visit)

Prediction 23.13%4.32fair odd
EV +0.365%
Edge +0.084%
Kelly +0.109%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.66%23.12%23.16%24.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.604.054.094.3428%25%24%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.42%3.79fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.537%
Kelly -0.736%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.17%26.45%26.44%27.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.7130%29%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.89I 52.91%NM 51.16%EV -4.63%E -2.45%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.28%EV +0.365%E +0.084%K +0.109%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.56%EV -3.84%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-21 22:20
Svenska Spel1.94I 51.55%NM 49.86%EV -2.11%E -1.09%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.50%EV -0.560%E -0.130%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-21 22:25
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.86%EV -2.11%E -1.09%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.50%EV -0.560%E -0.130%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-21 22:25
SportsBet1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -7.16%E -3.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -0.560%E -0.130%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 22:05
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -9.18%E -5.10%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -0.560%E -0.130%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-21 22:05
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.41%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.54%EV -2.41%E -0.571%K -0.749%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -3.58%E -0.981%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 22:20
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.41%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.54%EV -2.41%E -0.571%K -0.749%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -3.58%E -0.981%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 22:20
BetAnything1.85I 54.05%NM 51.41%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.54%EV -2.41%E -0.571%K -0.749%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.06%EV -3.58%E -0.981%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 22:25
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.85%EV -4.63%E -2.45%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 22:25
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 22:25
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 22:25
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 22:25
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 22:25
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 22:25
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-21 22:10
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -7.66%E -4.19%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-21 22:00
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -9.18%E -5.10%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -2.87%E -0.684%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 21:55
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 50.94%EV -5.64%E -3.02%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.96%EV -4.03%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -3.58%E -0.981%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 22:25
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -7.66%E -4.19%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -4.03%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -7.01%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 22:20
Bovada1.88I 53.19%NM 50.67%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -3.58%E -0.981%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 22:24
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.03%EV -4.13%E -2.17%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -6.22%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 21:25
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -5.64%E -3.02%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-21 21:35
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -5.64%E -3.02%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -6.22%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 22:25
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 21:40
betano_uk1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 22:24
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -5.64%E -3.02%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.54%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 21:05
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.16%EV -7.66%E -4.19%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 22:20
TABtouch1.87I 53.48%NM 49.64%EV -5.64%E -3.02%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -11.50%E -3.43%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 22:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.51%EV -11.70%E -6.69%K -15.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -5.19%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 22:20
GTbets1.89I 52.91%NM 50.14%EV -4.63%E -2.45%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.17%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -6.22%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-21 20:15
1xBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.73%EV -1.61%E -0.824%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.12%EV -7.04%E -1.75%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.14%EV -1.99%E -0.537%K -0.736%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-21 22:20
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 19:50
Codere (IT)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -5.64%E -3.02%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-21 19:50
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 19:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 19:40
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 19:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 19:40
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 21:55
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.64%E -3.02%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-21 22:25
LiveScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.66%E -4.19%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-21 22:25
PMU (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.66%E -4.19%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-21 22:25
Virgin Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.66%E -4.19%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-21 22:25
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -11.70%E -6.69%K -15.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -7.50%E -1.87%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-21 21:40
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -8.65%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 22:25
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -5.14%E -2.73%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -8.65%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -8.86%E -2.57%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 22:25
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.81%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-21 22:20
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.81%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-21 22:20
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.81%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-21 22:20
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -9.81%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-21 22:20
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.53%EV -11.70%E -6.69%K -15.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -9.81%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -12.82%E -3.89%K -5.58%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-21 21:40
Bet Right1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -10.97%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -3.58%E -0.981%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-21 22:25
Betclic (FR)1.79I 55.87%NM 50.29%EV -9.68%E -5.41%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -10.97%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.32%EV -9.65%E -2.82%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-21 22:05
PointsBet (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -12.12%E -3.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -2.26%E -0.610%K -0.836%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-21 22:25
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.65%E -3.60%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -12.12%E -3.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-21 21:00
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 50.21%EV -8.17%E -4.49%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -12.12%E -3.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -6.22%E -1.75%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-21 19:50
Unibet (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 50.48%EV -11.19%E -6.36%K -14.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -12.12%E -3.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-21 22:00
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.66%E -4.19%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -13.28%E -3.54%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -4.90%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-21 21:00
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -9.18%E -5.10%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -16.75%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-21 19:05
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 49.84%EV -11.19%E -6.36%K -14.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -16.75%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -10.18%E -3.00%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-21 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 52.01%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.71%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.28%0.1%2026-07-21 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 52.20%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.21%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.59%0.3%2026-07-21 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 52.14%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-07-21 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 52.14%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-07-21 22:25
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.46%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.79%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-07-21 22:20
Smarkets1.90I 52.63%NM 52.09%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.52%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.0%2026-07-21 22:25