La escuela de los momios

Union Saint-Gilloise v KV Mechelen

Inicio: 2026-05-10 16:30 UTC

Final: Union Saint-Gilloise 3–0 KV Mechelen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Predicción 70.05%1.43momio equitativo
EV -4.73%
Ventaja -3.48%
Kelly -13.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.07%70.15%69.94%74.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.211.301.321.3682.64%76.68%75.76%73.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

KV Mechelen (Visitante)

Predicción 11.49%8.70momio equitativo
EV +20.62%
Ventaja +1.96%
Kelly +2.17%
Crecimiento +0.448%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.21%11.47%11.58%13.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.758.458.0010.5014.81%11.83%12.50%9.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.46%5.42momio equitativo
EV +12.62%
Ventaja +2.07%
Kelly +2.47%
Crecimiento +0.312%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.81%18.38%18.48%20.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.005.205.006.1025.00%19.23%20.00%16.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 74.94%EV -9.64%E -7.47%K -33.23%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.21%EV +20.62%E +1.96%K +2.17%G +0.448%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.85%EV +12.62%E +2.07%K +2.47%G +0.312%3.4%2026-05-08 21:59
Svenska Spel1.29I 77.52%NM 74.94%EV -9.64%E -7.47%K -33.23%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.21%EV +20.62%E +1.96%K +2.17%G +0.448%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.85%EV +12.62%E +2.07%K +2.47%G +0.312%3.4%2026-05-08 21:59
Unibet (NL)1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -11.04%E -8.69%K -40.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV +10.77%E +1.80%K +2.15%G +0.232%5.4%2026-05-08 21:59
Unibet (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -11.04%E -8.69%K -40.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV +10.77%E +1.80%K +2.15%G +0.232%5.4%2026-05-08 21:59
LeoVegas1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -11.74%E -9.32%K -45.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV +7.08%E +1.22%K +1.48%G +0.104%6.6%2026-05-08 22:00
Casumo1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -11.74%E -9.32%K -45.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV +7.08%E +1.22%K +1.48%G +0.104%6.6%2026-05-08 22:00
betPARX1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -11.74%E -9.32%K -45.14%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV +7.08%E +1.22%K +1.48%G +0.104%6.6%2026-05-08 22:00
Unibet1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -12.44%E -9.95%K -49.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV +7.08%E +1.22%K +1.48%G +0.104%7.2%2026-05-08 21:59
BetRivers1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -12.44%E -9.95%K -49.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV +7.08%E +1.22%K +1.48%G +0.104%7.2%2026-05-08 21:59
TABtouch1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -12.44%E -9.95%K -49.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV +7.08%E +1.22%K +1.48%G +0.104%7.2%2026-05-08 22:00
Grosvenor1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -12.44%E -9.95%K -49.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +14.88%E +1.49%K +1.65%G +0.246%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV +7.08%E +1.22%K +1.48%G +0.104%7.2%2026-05-08 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.23I 81.30%NM 74.44%EV -13.84%E -11.25%K -60.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV +9.13%E +0.961%K +1.07%G +0.098%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV +6.16%E +1.07%K +1.30%G +0.080%9.2%2026-05-08 22:00
PMU (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -14.54%E -11.92%K -66.09%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV +9.13%E +0.961%K +1.07%G +0.098%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV +6.16%E +1.07%K +1.30%G +0.080%9.9%2026-05-08 21:59
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -15.24%E -12.59%K -72.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV +9.13%E +0.961%K +1.07%G +0.098%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV +3.39%E +0.605%K +0.737%G +0.025%11.0%2026-05-08 22:00
LiveScore Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 74.44%EV -15.24%E -12.59%K -72.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV +9.13%E +0.961%K +1.07%G +0.098%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.08%EV +3.39%E +0.605%K +0.737%G +0.025%11.0%2026-05-08 21:59
1xBet1.34I 74.63%NM 71.22%EV -6.13%E -4.58%K -18.04%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.84%EV +1.09%E +0.124%K +0.140%G +0.002%5.32I 18.80%NM 17.94%EV -1.78%E -0.335%K -0.412%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 11:09
Pinnacle1.34I 74.63%NM 71.34%EV -6.13%E -4.58%K -18.04%G +0.000%8.62I 11.60%NM 11.09%EV -0.975%E -0.113%K -0.128%G +0.000%5.44I 18.38%NM 17.57%EV +0.435%E +0.080%K +0.098%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-10 01:44
Marathon Bet1.31I 76.34%NM 71.21%EV -8.23%E -6.29%K -26.56%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.85%EV -1.21%E -0.140%K -0.159%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.94%EV -4.00%E -0.769%K -0.952%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 11:08
NordicBet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.44%EV -5.43%E -4.02%K -15.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -2.35%E -0.277%K -0.314%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 01:39
Betsson1.35I 74.07%NM 69.44%EV -5.43%E -4.02%K -15.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -2.35%E -0.277%K -0.314%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 01:39
Coolbet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -2.35%E -0.277%K -0.314%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 14:05
theScore Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -2.35%E -0.277%K -0.314%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-06 17:25
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.46%EV -7.53%E -5.71%K -23.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -2.35%E -0.277%K -0.314%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 14:05
PointsBet (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -2.35%E -0.277%K -0.314%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -12.30%E -2.59%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 17:24
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.94%E -6.87%K -29.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -2.35%E -0.277%K -0.314%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-05 20:40
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -4.73%E -3.48%K -13.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -3.07%E -0.585%K -0.723%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 16:49
Fanatics1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -5.43%E -4.02%K -15.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -3.07%E -0.585%K -0.723%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 02:34
DraftKings1.34I 74.63%NM 70.29%EV -6.13%E -4.58%K -18.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -3.07%E -0.585%K -0.723%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 16:35
Unibet (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -5.43%E -4.02%K -15.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 21:34
BetOnline.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -7.53%E -5.71%K -23.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.500%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 17:09
LowVig.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -7.53%E -5.71%K -23.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.500%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 17:10
BetAnything1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -7.53%E -5.71%K -23.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.500%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 17:09
Bovada1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 13:32
Everygame1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 16:43
BetUS1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 13:34
Suprabets1.32I 75.76%NM 70.23%EV -7.53%E -5.71%K -23.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.18%EV -5.84%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 16:43
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.07%E -3.28%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 17:24
Paddy Power1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -9.64%E -7.47%K -33.23%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -8.10%E -1.01%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 16:59
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 69.71%EV -4.73%E -3.48%K -13.14%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -10.97%E -1.42%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -3.07%E -0.585%K -0.723%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 21:35
NetBet (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 69.57%EV -10.34%E -8.08%K -36.91%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.49%EV -10.97%E -1.42%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.95%EV -13.23%E -2.81%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-10 01:44
Unibet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.88%EV -8.94%E -6.87%K -29.78%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.95%EV -12.69%E -1.67%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 21:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.73%E -3.48%K -13.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 21:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.73%E -3.48%K -13.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 21:35
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 16:39
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 16:39
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 16:39
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 16:39
BoyleSports1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -12.30%E -2.59%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-05 00:34
Betclic (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 69.35%EV -8.23%E -6.29%K -26.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.54%EV -9.54%E -1.95%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 21:33
PlayUp1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -6.83%E -5.14%K -20.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -15.07%E -3.28%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 01:39
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -9.64%E -7.47%K -33.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -12.30%E -2.59%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-07 16:34
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 69.94%EV -12.44%E -9.95%K -49.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.66%EV -13.84%E -1.85%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.40%EV -12.30%E -2.59%K -3.28%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-09 16:59
Winamax (DE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -7.53%E -5.71%K -23.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -19.59%E -2.80%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -5.84%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 21:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 67.07%EV -12.44%E -9.95%K -49.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 11.98%EV -19.59%E -2.80%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.96%EV -26.15%E -6.54%K -8.72%G +0.000%19.3%2026-05-09 16:34
Winamax (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 68.43%EV -8.23%E -6.29%K -26.56%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.28%EV -22.46%E -3.33%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.29%EV -9.54%E -1.95%K -2.44%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-09 21:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.37I 72.99%NM 72.29%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.81%1.0%2026-05-10 02:45
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 72.39%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.38%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23%1.6%2026-05-10 02:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.05%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.15%2.0%2026-05-10 02:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.05%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.15%2.0%2026-05-10 02:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.05%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.15%2.0%2026-05-10 02:50
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 71.81%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.77%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.43%2.4%2026-05-10 02:49