Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.41
assuming max odds 9.45
assuming max odds 4.90
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 68.34%; Gent (Visit): 10.78%; Draw: 20.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.79. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.30%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.38%EV -4.32%E -3.08%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.79%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.82%EV +2.30%E +0.469%K +0.589%G +0.014% | 2.9% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.38%EV -4.32%E -3.08%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.79%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.82%EV +2.30%E +0.469%K +0.589%G +0.014% | 2.9% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.97%EV -5.69%E -4.12%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.20%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +0.208%E +0.043%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.97%EV -5.69%E -4.12%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.20%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +0.208%E +0.043%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.57%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -0.835%E -0.176%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 17:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.14%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -0.835%E -0.176%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.14%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -0.835%E -0.176%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.14%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -0.835%E -0.176%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.15%EV -7.74%E -5.73%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -1.88%E -0.400%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.15%EV -7.74%E -5.73%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -1.88%E -0.400%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.15%EV -7.74%E -5.73%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -1.88%E -0.400%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.79%EV -3.64%E -2.58%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 9.45I 10.58%NM 10.26%EV +1.87%E +0.197%K +0.221%G +0.004% | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.95%EV -3.34%E -0.722%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.82%EV -4.32%E -3.08%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 9.42I 10.62%NM 10.23%EV +1.54%E +0.164%K +0.183%G +0.003% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.95%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.50%EV -4.32%E -3.08%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.66%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.85%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-22 17:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.91%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.71%EV -5.68%E -0.649%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 17:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 17:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -6.37%E -4.65%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.18%EV -9.10%E -6.84%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.79%E -7.41%K -30.58%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -3.97%E -0.862%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.69%E -4.12%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.07%EV -5.69%E -4.12%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 18:23 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.07%EV -5.69%E -4.12%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 18:17 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.56%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.72%EV -6.22%E -0.715%K -0.808%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.83%EV -7.30%E -0.848%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.83%EV -7.30%E -0.848%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.83%EV -7.30%E -0.848%K -0.960%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 17:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.29%EV -7.74%E -5.73%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.53%EV -21.85%E -3.01%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -11.15%E -8.58%K -37.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -11.15%E -8.58%K -37.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -6.05%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.25%EV -5.69%E -4.12%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.35%EV -1.91%E -0.210%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -8.14%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.25%EV -5.69%E -4.12%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.35%EV -1.91%E -0.210%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -8.14%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.17%EV -5.69%E -4.12%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -8.14%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 17:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -6.37%E -4.65%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV -5.68%E -0.649%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -8.14%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 17:49 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.56%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.25%EV -1.91%E -0.210%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -8.14%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 18:03 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.48%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -8.14%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 18:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.74%EV -8.42%E -6.28%K -24.76%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.64%EV -15.92%E -2.04%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -8.14%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.82%EV -7.74%E -5.73%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.44%EV -21.85%E -3.01%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.74%EV -9.19%E -2.11%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-22 18:23 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -9.60%E -2.22%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 18:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.37%EV -11.15%E -8.58%K -37.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -9.60%E -2.22%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.82%EV -6.37%E -4.65%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -2.99%E -0.332%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -11.27%E -2.65%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 17:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 10:53 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 18:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 18:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 18:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.39%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -8.37%E -0.985%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-22 18:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.93%EV -11.15%E -8.58%K -37.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.03%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.44%EV -11.15%E -8.58%K -37.18%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.69%EV -19.15%E -2.55%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.23%EV -9.79%E -7.41%K -30.58%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.95%EV -27.24%E -4.04%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 68.27%EV -12.52%E -9.78%K -44.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.92%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.81%EV -12.32%E -2.93%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.59%EV -7.05%E -5.19%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -13.76%E -1.72%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -14.41%E -3.51%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-22 18:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 65.96%EV -11.84%E -9.18%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.35%EV -19.15%E -2.55%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.69%EV -21.71%E -5.79%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.27% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.27% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 18:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.27% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.27% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.85% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.37% | 2.3% | 2026-04-22 18:15 |