Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Zulte-Waregem v Genk

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 14:00 UTC

Final: SV Zulte-Waregem 2–1 Genk

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Zulte-Waregem (Local)

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV +6.92%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +2.60%
Growth +0.180%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.49%29.22%29.33%30.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.153.153.6634.48%31.73%31.75%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Genk (Visit)

Prediction 44.79%2.23fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.22%44.82%44.70%48.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.072.052.1850.51%48.24%48.78%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV +2.70%
Edge +0.683%
Kelly +0.914%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.54%25.96%25.96%26.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.603.9530.30%28.16%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SV Zulte-Waregem (Local): 29.21%; Genk (Visit): 44.79%; Draw: 26.00%. For SV Zulte-Waregem (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 26.49%EV +6.92%E +1.89%K +2.60%G +0.180%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97%EV -11.32%E -5.72%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.54%EV +2.70%E +0.683%K +0.914%G +0.025%3.1%2026-08-09 13:54
Pinnacle🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.98%EV +0.491%E +0.143%K +0.201%G +0.001%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.28%EV -6.84%E -3.29%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.74%EV -2.76%E -0.739%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 13:55
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -0.678%E -0.199%K -0.282%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -3.80%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 13:55
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -0.678%E -0.199%K -0.282%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -3.80%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 13:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -0.678%E -0.199%K -0.282%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -2.14%E -0.638%K -0.910%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.60%EV -7.29%E -3.52%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -2.14%E -0.638%K -0.910%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -3.60%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 13:45
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -3.60%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -3.60%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.15%EV -9.53%E -4.72%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.61%EV -5.36%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 13:54
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.57%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.09%EV -2.36%E -1.08%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.57%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.09%EV -2.36%E -1.08%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.57%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.09%EV -2.36%E -1.08%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 13:54
LowVig.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -7.29%E -3.52%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -3.80%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -6.84%E -3.29%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 13:55
betano_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 13:54
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -3.70%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 13:34
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -3.70%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 13:55
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -5.94%E -2.83%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 13:55
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -5.94%E -2.83%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 13:55
BetUS🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.94%E -2.83%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 13:55
BetAnything🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -7.74%E -3.76%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -3.80%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 13:55
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.76%EV -9.53%E -4.72%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.99%EV -12.90%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 13:55
Suprabets🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.54%EV -7.69%E -2.43%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.02%EV -5.05%E -2.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.44%EV -8.22%E -2.33%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.05%EV -5.05%E -2.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.70%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 13:55
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.05%EV -5.05%E -2.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.70%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 13:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.05%EV -5.05%E -2.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.70%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 13:55
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.05%EV -5.05%E -2.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.70%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 13:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 44.89%EV -9.08%E -4.47%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.18%EV -9.52%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 13:54
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.70%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.80%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 14:09
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -3.70%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 07:24
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -3.70%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 07:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 13:55
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 13:55
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -9.44%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.22%EV -7.74%E -3.76%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -10.30%E -2.99%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 13:39
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -10.90%E -3.57%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.42%E -5.21%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -5.10%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 13:54
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -10.90%E -3.57%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.72%EV -7.29%E -3.52%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -10.90%E -3.57%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.72%EV -7.29%E -3.52%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-09 13:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -10.90%E -3.57%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.12%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -10.30%E -2.99%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 13:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -3.70%E -1.72%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 07:24
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -5.94%E -2.83%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-07 07:25
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-09 13:54
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-31 08:05
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.57%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -12.90%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.09%EV -11.32%E -5.72%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -7.70%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 13:55
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.47%EV -10.87%E -5.46%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-09 13:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -13.82%E -4.69%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.71%EV -9.53%E -4.72%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -12.90%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -13.82%E -4.69%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.71%EV -9.53%E -4.72%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -12.90%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -13.82%E -4.69%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.71%EV -9.53%E -4.72%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -12.90%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -15.28%E -5.27%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-09 13:45
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -15.28%E -5.27%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -8.18%E -3.99%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-09 13:30
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.17%EV -15.28%E -5.27%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.31%EV -9.53%E -4.72%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.51%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-09 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Matchbook3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Kalshi3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-08-09 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.14%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.65%1.3%2026-08-09 13:55
Smarkets3.50I 28.57%NM 28.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.79%2.1%2026-08-09 13:55