Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Standard Liege v Royal Antwerp

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 18:45 UTC

Final: Standard Liege 1–0 Royal Antwerp

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Standard Liege (Local)

Prediction 43.53%2.30fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.36%43.49%43.57%44.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.132.122.2348.78%46.98%47.17%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Royal Antwerp (Visit)

Prediction 29.46%3.40fair odd
EV +0.147%
Edge +0.043%
Kelly +0.061%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.22%29.41%29.41%30.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.123.4034.48%31.82%32.05%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.01%3.70fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.766%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%27.09%27.02%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.353.6032.26%29.79%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Standard Liege (Local): 43.53%; Royal Antwerp (Visit): 29.46%; Draw: 27.01%. For Royal Antwerp (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.395. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.400, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.147%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.07%EV -2.92%E -1.31%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.25%EV +0.147%E +0.043%K +0.061%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 09:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.07%EV -2.92%E -1.31%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.25%EV +0.147%E +0.043%K +0.061%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.07%EV -2.92%E -1.31%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.25%EV +0.147%E +0.043%K +0.061%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 09:54
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.73%EV -7.27%E -3.41%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -1.33%E -0.396%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -4.11%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:15
1xBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.16%EV -5.97%E -2.76%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.82%EV -2.50%E -0.756%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.02%EV -4.65%E -1.32%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 14:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 06:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -5.97%E -2.76%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 09:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -5.97%E -2.76%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 09:54
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -5.97%E -2.76%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 09:55
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -5.97%E -2.76%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 09:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.19%EV -8.14%E -3.86%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.78%EV -4.57%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.81%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.74%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 10:00
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.74%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.81%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:35
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.74%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.81%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 08:35
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -7.71%E -3.64%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -5.74%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -14.91%E -4.73%K -6.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 09:54
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.74%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -14.91%E -4.73%K -6.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 09:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.74%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -14.91%E -4.73%K -6.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 09:54
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.74%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -14.91%E -4.73%K -6.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 09:55
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -7.71%E -3.64%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 14:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -7.71%E -3.64%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 14:05
BetUS🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -7.71%E -3.64%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 14:14
BetAnything🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -7.71%E -3.64%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 14:10
Suprabets🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.86%EV -9.01%E -4.31%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.04%EV -8.43%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 10:38
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.89%EV -9.45%E -4.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.32%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -16.26%E -5.25%K -7.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.68%EV -9.45%E -4.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.03%EV -7.81%E -2.49%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.29%EV -10.05%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 07:03
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.65%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.38%EV -8.10%E -2.60%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 00:19
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.65%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.38%EV -8.10%E -2.60%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 00:15
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.76%E -0.766%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 02:00
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.76%E -0.766%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-01 02:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.76%E -0.766%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.81%E -1.97%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 07:49
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -5.53%E -2.55%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 10:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 18:54
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 11:20
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 11:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.76%E -5.25%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 42.94%EV -10.32%E -5.01%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -16.26%E -5.25%K -7.75%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 09:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 42.94%EV -10.32%E -5.01%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -16.26%E -5.25%K -7.75%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 09:54
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 03:49
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.46%E -1.56%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-02 03:49
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-31 11:28
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-31 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-03 17:10
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.21%EV -9.45%E -4.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.83%EV -9.51%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 08:35
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.76%E -5.25%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -8.16%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -10.76%E -5.25%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -13.56%E -4.24%K -6.17%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-03 18:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.00%EV -10.76%E -5.25%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -13.11%E -4.44%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -12.21%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-03 17:10
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -14.58%E -5.03%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-02 18:50
SportsBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.72%EV -9.89%E -4.78%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.49%EV -14.58%E -5.03%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.86%E -3.29%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-31 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 42.90%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.61%5.0%2026-09-04 14:15
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%6.0%2026-09-04 14:05
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 43.39%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%7.7%2026-09-04 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%9.1%2026-09-04 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%9.1%2026-09-04 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 45.09%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%12.0%2026-09-04 13:25