Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.97
assuming max odds 4.17
assuming max odds 3.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Standard Liege (Local): 48.71%; Leuven (Visit): 24.91%; Draw: 26.37%. For Leuven (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.88%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.08%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.30%EV +3.88%E +0.931%K +1.22%G +0.048% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62%EV -3.74%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-08 18:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.03%EV -4.03%E -2.05%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.58%EV -2.10%E -0.533%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.39%EV -3.47%E -0.949%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 18:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -2.84%E -0.729%K -0.980%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 18:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.85%EV -6.47%E -3.37%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 18:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.85%EV -6.47%E -3.37%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 18:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -7.44%E -3.92%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.08%EV -7.44%E -3.92%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.28%EV -4.34%E -1.13%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.93%EV -4.03%E -2.05%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.70%EV -1.10%E -0.294%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.93%EV -4.03%E -2.05%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.70%EV -1.10%E -0.294%K -0.400%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.01%E -2.57%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 17:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.01%E -2.57%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 17:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 17:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 17:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.00%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.38%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 18:28 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.00%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.38%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 18:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -5.33%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.63%EV -6.47%E -3.37%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 24.77%EV -6.08%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 26.60%EV -7.43%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 18:38 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -5.01%E -2.57%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-08 18:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.89%EV -6.47%E -3.37%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 17:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 18:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -6.58%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-08 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -2.42%E -0.654%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 18:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -2.42%E -0.654%K -0.896%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -3.74%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -3.74%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -3.74%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 18:08 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -7.44%E -3.92%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.73%EV -6.47%E -3.37%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -3.74%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 18:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -8.42%E -4.48%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -9.07%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -11.65%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-08 18:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -8.42%E -4.48%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.06%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.44%E -3.92%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.30%EV -8.42%E -4.48%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 26.47%EV -9.54%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-08 18:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-08 18:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.89%EV -12.31%E -6.84%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.70%EV -8.90%E -4.76%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -6.38%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.79%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.79%EV -9.88%E -5.34%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 18:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.78%EV -11.83%E -6.53%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.87%EV -11.56%E -3.26%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.35%EV -11.65%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -7.44%E -3.92%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -8.90%E -4.76%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-08 18:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.12%EV -9.39%E -5.05%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -14.05%E -4.07%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 18:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 47.95%EV -15.72%E -9.09%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.40%EV -15.30%E -4.50%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.65%EV -20.88%E -6.96%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 20.5% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.86% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.19% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95% | 0.3% | 2026-05-08 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.86% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.19% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95% | 0.3% | 2026-05-08 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.86% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.19% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95% | 0.3% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.86% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.19% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95% | 0.3% | 2026-05-08 18:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.71% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74% | 1.1% | 2026-05-08 18:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-05-08 18:34 |