Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Standard Liege v Charleroi

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 18:45 UTC

Final: Standard Liege 0–2 Charleroi

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Standard Liege (Local)

Prediction 39.49%2.53fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.506%
Kelly -0.843%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.26%39.61%39.51%43.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.312.302.5048.31%43.29%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Charleroi (Visit)

Prediction 31.01%3.22fair odd
EV +5.44%
Edge +1.60%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.123%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.81%30.89%31.03%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.603.033.013.4038.46%32.97%33.22%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.49%3.39fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.357%
Kelly -0.509%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.29%29.51%29.46%31.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.113.103.3536.36%32.17%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Standard Liege (Local): 39.49%; Charleroi (Visit): 31.01%; Draw: 29.49%. For Charleroi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.53%EV -9.95%E -4.37%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.52%EV +5.44%E +1.60%K +2.27%G +0.123%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV -1.20%E -0.357%K -0.509%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.53%EV -9.95%E -4.37%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.52%EV +5.44%E +1.60%K +2.27%G +0.123%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV -1.20%E -0.357%K -0.509%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-23 18:40
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.53%EV -15.48%E -7.23%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV +3.89%E +1.16%K +1.66%G +0.064%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 18:36
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -13.11%E -5.96%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV +0.789%E +0.243%K +0.351%G +0.003%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -13.11%E -5.96%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV +0.789%E +0.243%K +0.351%G +0.003%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -13.11%E -5.96%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV +0.789%E +0.243%K +0.351%G +0.003%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 18:39
LeoVegas🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.25%EV -14.30%E -6.59%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV -0.761%E -0.238%K -0.346%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:39
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -2.31%E -0.734%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-23 18:39
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.48%E -7.23%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -2.31%E -0.734%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:40
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.48%E -7.23%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -2.31%E -0.734%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:39
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -15.48%E -7.23%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -2.31%E -0.734%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:40
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.77%EV -3.63%E -1.49%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.91%EV -2.62%E -0.835%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.32%EV -2.38%E -0.718%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-23 18:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.46%EV -3.63%E -1.49%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.46%EV -3.63%E -1.49%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:39
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -9.16%E -3.98%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:38
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -2.67%E -0.809%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 18:39
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.19%E -3.06%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:37
Suprabets🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.07%EV -5.61%E -2.35%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.81%EV -10.63%E -3.51%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:37
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.04%EV -16.27%E -7.68%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.22%EV -10.04%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-23 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -17.06%E -8.12%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -3.86%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.10%EV -10.04%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-23 18:39
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.73%EV -2.84%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.83%EV -4.17%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.44%EV -7.69%E -2.46%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 18:40
BetAnything🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.61%EV -1.26%E -0.506%K -0.843%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -5.41%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.56%EV -12.11%E -4.06%K -6.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -9.16%E -3.98%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.41%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -2.67%E -0.809%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:40
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.21%E -2.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -5.41%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -10.04%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 18:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.22%EV -18.25%E -8.81%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -5.41%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.13%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-23 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.22%EV -18.25%E -8.81%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -5.41%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.13%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-23 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -4.03%E -1.66%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.90%EV -6.34%E -2.10%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.70%EV -10.34%E -3.40%K -5.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 18:40
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.24%E -1.32%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:39
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -3.24%E -1.32%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:39
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.21%E -2.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-23 18:39
BetUS🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.07%EV -2.84%E -1.16%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.71%EV -10.04%E -3.29%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 18:39
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -9.16%E -3.98%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.67%E -0.809%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.16%E -3.98%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.15%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 18:40
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.96%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.00%EV -7.89%E -2.66%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.56%EV -7.98%E -2.56%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-23 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -3.24%E -1.32%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -8.51%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.16%E -3.98%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.51%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 18:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -13.11%E -5.96%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.51%E -2.89%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-23 18:39
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -1.26%E -0.506%K -0.843%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.16%EV -9.44%E -3.23%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:39
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -1.26%E -0.506%K -0.843%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.16%EV -9.44%E -3.23%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.56%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.48%EV -9.44%E -3.23%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.97%EV -12.40%E -4.18%K -6.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-23 18:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -3.24%E -1.32%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -3.24%E -1.32%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -5.62%E -1.76%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-23 18:39
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.21%E -2.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-23 18:39
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.21%E -2.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-23 18:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.21%E -2.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-23 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.21%E -2.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-23 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.16%E -3.98%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.57%E -2.76%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 18:39
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -6.00%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -15.06%E -5.23%K -8.01%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-23 18:39
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -9.16%E -3.98%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.07%E -3.47%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -15.06%E -5.23%K -8.01%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-23 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -5.21%E -2.17%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -11.62%E -4.08%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -11.52%E -3.84%K -5.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.62%E -4.08%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-23 18:39
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -9.16%E -3.98%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.08%EV -13.17%E -4.70%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.08%EV -17.42%E -6.22%K -9.68%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-23 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.26%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.25%EV -19.37%E -7.45%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.49%EV -18.89%E -6.87%K -10.80%G +0.000%19.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 39.41%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.30%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.30%-0.9%2026-05-23 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-05-23 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-05-23 18:40
Matchbook2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-05-23 18:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%1.0%2026-05-23 18:40
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80%1.5%2026-05-23 18:40