Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SK Beveren v Sint Truiden

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: SK Beveren 2–0 Sint Truiden

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SK Beveren (Local)

Prediction 30.73%3.25fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.517%
Kelly -0.752%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.16%30.74%30.73%31.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.2035.71%33.50%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sint Truiden (Visit)

Prediction 43.08%2.32fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.48%42.99%43.16%44.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.132.2650.00%47.05%46.95%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV +0.838%
Edge +0.218%
Kelly +0.294%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.77%26.27%26.11%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.523.8530.77%28.19%28.37%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SK Beveren (Local): 30.73%; Sint Truiden (Visit): 43.08%; Draw: 26.19%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.838%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -3.19%E -1.01%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.28%EV -6.10%E -2.80%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV +0.838%E +0.218%K +0.294%G +0.002%3.6%2026-09-09 09:04
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -3.19%E -1.01%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.28%EV -6.10%E -2.80%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV +0.838%E +0.218%K +0.294%G +0.002%3.6%2026-09-09 09:05
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.73%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.23%EV -7.82%E -3.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -1.78%E -0.475%K -0.648%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 09:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -1.78%E -0.475%K -0.648%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 11:39
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -1.78%E -0.475%K -0.648%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 11:39
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.68%E -4.09%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 09:04
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.68%E -4.09%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.68%E -4.09%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 09:04
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.68%E -4.09%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 09:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:39
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -10.87%E -3.75%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 08:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.73%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 11:20
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 12:50
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 20:15
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 20:19
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 11:39
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 14:34
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 14:34
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 17:15
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.65%EV -10.40%E -5.00%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 09:04
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -11.26%E -5.47%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 09:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -11.26%E -5.47%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 09:04
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -11.26%E -5.47%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 09:04
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.11%EV -2.58%E -0.813%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.61%EV -3.51%E -1.57%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 15:55
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 09:20
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 09:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 09:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 09:19
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.87%E -3.75%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 11:20
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.95%E -4.98%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -10.87%E -3.75%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.74%EV -12.13%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 09:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%EV -12.41%E -4.35%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.38%EV -11.70%E -5.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 11:20
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -13.95%E -4.98%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.91%EV -10.83%E -5.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.78%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.89%EV -12.99%E -6.43%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 09:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.78%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.89%EV -12.99%E -6.43%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 09:04
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.14%EV -13.95%E -4.98%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.59%EV -13.85%E -6.92%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-08 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.29%EV -5.34%E -1.73%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.60%EV -5.66%E -2.59%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -9.90%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -11.70%E -5.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.07%EV -10.16%E -2.96%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 11:23
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.03%EV -2.58%E -0.813%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -2.65%E -1.17%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.84%EV -10.42%E -3.05%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 14:41
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -1.66%E -0.517%K -0.752%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 11:24
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 08:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.87%E -3.75%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.70%E -5.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 14:05
Suprabets🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.73%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.30%EV -5.66%E -2.59%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.82%EV -12.78%E -3.84%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 08:28
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 30.53%EV -10.26%E -3.51%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.45%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-09 17:10
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -4.37%E -1.97%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -14.88%E -4.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -4.37%E -1.97%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -14.88%E -4.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-09-09 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 31.14%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%10.0%2026-09-09 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 31.14%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%10.0%2026-09-09 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 31.02%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.25%10.4%2026-09-09 14:25
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 30.50%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%11.5%2026-09-09 14:05
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 29.72%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.17%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.11%12.9%2026-09-09 16:51