Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SK Beveren v Sint Truiden

Inicio: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: SK Beveren 2–0 Sint Truiden

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SK Beveren (Local)

Predicción 30.73%3.25momio equitativo
EV -1.66%
Ventaja -0.517%
Kelly -0.752%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.16%30.74%30.73%31.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.993.003.2035.71%33.50%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sint Truiden (Visitante)

Predicción 43.08%2.32momio equitativo
EV -2.65%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -2.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.48%42.99%43.16%44.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.132.132.2650.00%47.05%46.95%44.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.19%3.82momio equitativo
EV +0.838%
Ventaja +0.218%
Kelly +0.294%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.77%26.27%26.11%28.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.553.523.8530.77%28.19%28.37%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SK Beveren (Local): 30.73%; Sint Truiden (Visitante): 43.08%; Empate: 26.19%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.82. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.838%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -3.19%E -1.01%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.28%EV -6.10%E -2.80%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV +0.838%E +0.218%K +0.294%G +0.002%3.6%2026-09-09 09:04
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -3.19%E -1.01%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.28%EV -6.10%E -2.80%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV +0.838%E +0.218%K +0.294%G +0.002%3.6%2026-09-09 09:05
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.73%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.23%EV -7.82%E -3.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -1.78%E -0.475%K -0.648%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 09:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -1.78%E -0.475%K -0.648%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 11:39
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -1.78%E -0.475%K -0.648%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 11:39
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.68%E -4.09%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 09:04
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.68%E -4.09%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.68%E -4.09%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 09:04
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.68%E -4.09%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 09:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 11:39
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -10.87%E -3.75%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -3.09%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 08:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.73%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 11:20
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 12:50
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 20:15
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 20:19
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 11:39
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 14:34
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 14:34
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 17:15
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.65%EV -10.40%E -5.00%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 09:04
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -11.26%E -5.47%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 09:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -11.26%E -5.47%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 09:04
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -11.26%E -5.47%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 09:04
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.11%EV -2.58%E -0.813%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.61%EV -3.51%E -1.57%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 15:55
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 09:20
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 09:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 09:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.80%E -2.60%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 09:19
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.87%E -3.75%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 11:20
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.95%E -4.98%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -10.87%E -3.75%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.74%EV -12.13%E -5.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 09:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%EV -12.41%E -4.35%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.38%EV -11.70%E -5.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 11:20
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.72%EV -13.95%E -4.98%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.91%EV -10.83%E -5.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.38%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.78%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.89%EV -12.99%E -6.43%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 09:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.78%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.89%EV -12.99%E -6.43%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 09:04
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -5.23%E -2.38%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.14%EV -13.95%E -4.98%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.59%EV -13.85%E -6.92%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-08 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.29%EV -5.34%E -1.73%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.60%EV -5.66%E -2.59%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -9.90%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.34%E -3.17%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -11.70%E -5.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.07%EV -10.16%E -2.96%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 11:23
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.03%EV -2.58%E -0.813%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -2.65%E -1.17%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.84%EV -10.42%E -3.05%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 14:41
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -1.66%E -0.517%K -0.752%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.39%E -3.44%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 11:24
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.49%E -3.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 08:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.87%E -3.75%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.70%E -5.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 14:05
Suprabets🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.73%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.30%EV -5.66%E -2.59%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.82%EV -12.78%E -3.84%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 08:28
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 30.53%EV -10.26%E -3.51%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.45%EV -9.54%E -4.54%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-09 17:10
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -4.37%E -1.97%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -14.88%E -4.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -6.27%E -2.05%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -4.37%E -1.97%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -14.88%E -4.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 14:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-09-09 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 31.14%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%10.0%2026-09-09 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 31.14%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%10.0%2026-09-09 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 31.02%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.25%10.4%2026-09-09 14:25
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 30.50%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.12%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%11.5%2026-09-09 14:05
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 29.72%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.17%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.11%12.9%2026-09-09 16:51