Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sint Truiden v Gent

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 18:49 UTC

Final: Sint Truiden 1–1 Gent

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sint Truiden (Local)

Prediction 45.26%2.21fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.821%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.13%45.35%45.28%47.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.022.052.1753.48%49.47%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gent (Visit)

Prediction 29.33%3.41fair odd
EV +7.05%
Edge +1.93%
Kelly +2.66%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.58%29.29%29.30%30.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.223.203.6535.71%31.07%31.25%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.41%3.94fair odd
EV -0.904%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.312%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.43%25.36%25.42%27.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.573.603.9033.33%28.02%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sint Truiden (Local): 45.26%; Gent (Visit): 29.33%; Draw: 25.41%. For Gent (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.55%EV -7.67%E -3.76%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58%EV +7.05%E +1.93%K +2.66%G +0.188%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.87%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-16 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.55%EV -7.67%E -3.76%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58%EV +7.05%E +1.93%K +2.66%G +0.188%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.87%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-16 18:45
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -10.83%E -5.50%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV +2.65%E +0.758%K +1.06%G +0.028%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -10.83%E -5.50%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV +2.65%E +0.758%K +1.06%G +0.028%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.39%EV -10.83%E -5.50%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV +2.65%E +0.758%K +1.06%G +0.028%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:45
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.34%EV -11.29%E -5.76%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV +1.19%E +0.344%K +0.484%G +0.006%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 18:42
LeoVegas🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.06%EV -12.19%E -6.28%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -0.281%E -0.083%K -0.117%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.07%E -3.16%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 18:45
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.42%EV -3.59%E -1.69%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.71%EV -1.16%E -0.344%K -0.490%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.87%EV -4.97%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 18:44
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.83%EV -12.65%E -6.55%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -1.75%E -0.522%K -0.743%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -12.34%E -3.58%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 18:45
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.83%EV -12.65%E -6.55%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -1.75%E -0.522%K -0.743%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -12.34%E -3.58%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 18:45
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.83%EV -12.65%E -6.55%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -1.75%E -0.522%K -0.743%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -12.34%E -3.58%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 18:45
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -3.21%E -0.974%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -13.55%E -7.09%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -3.21%E -0.974%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.11%EV -14.91%E -7.93%K -16.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -3.21%E -0.974%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-16 18:45
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.75%EV -1.78%E -0.821%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.70%EV -4.09%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-16 18:44
Suprabets🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -6.31%E -3.05%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -4.68%E -1.44%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.26%EV -6.76%E -3.28%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -4.68%E -1.44%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.05%EV -9.04%E -2.52%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.87%EV -15.36%E -8.21%K -17.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -4.68%E -1.44%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.16%EV -14.88%E -4.44%K -6.33%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-16 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.87%EV -15.36%E -8.21%K -17.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -4.68%E -1.44%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.16%EV -14.88%E -4.44%K -6.33%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-16 18:45
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 18:44
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 18:45
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -7.26%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:45
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -7.26%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:44
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:42
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 18:45
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 18:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -5.86%E -2.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -5.86%E -2.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:45
BetAnything🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -5.86%E -2.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 18:44
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.48%E -4.74%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 18:45
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 18:44
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 18:43
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 18:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.15%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 18:44
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -7.61%E -2.42%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -4.95%E -2.36%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 18:43
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -5.86%E -2.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 18:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.59%EV -10.38%E -5.24%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -0.904%E -0.232%K -0.312%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 18:45
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.21%E -3.52%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 18:44
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -9.48%E -4.74%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.08%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-16 18:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.04%EV -8.57%E -4.24%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.54%EV -9.67%E -3.14%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.42%EV -9.04%E -2.52%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 18:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.56%EV -11.29%E -5.76%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -10.55%E -3.46%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -9.80%E -2.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 18:43
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.98%EV -10.38%E -5.24%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.20%EV -10.55%E -3.46%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -12.34%E -3.58%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-16 18:43
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -5.86%E -2.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.50%EV -12.19%E -6.28%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43%EV -2.17%E -0.565%K -0.763%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 18:45
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.31%EV -11.74%E -6.02%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -11.07%E -3.16%K -4.43%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-16 18:45
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.48%E -4.74%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -16.15%E -4.89%K -7.02%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-16 18:45
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.62%EV -11.74%E -6.02%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -12.01%E -4.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -16.15%E -4.89%K -7.02%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-16 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 43.13%EV -13.55%E -7.09%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.42%EV -17.88%E -6.39%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.46%EV -23.77%E -7.92%K -11.89%G +0.000%21.4%2026-05-16 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-16 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-16 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-16 18:45
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-05-16 18:45
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 45.57%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90%1.6%2026-05-16 18:45
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 45.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.58%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.57%2.9%2026-05-16 18:45