Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.50
assuming max odds 1.98
assuming max odds 3.70
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KV Mechelen (Local): 24.41%; Anderlecht (Visit): 49.38%; Draw: 26.21%. For KV Mechelen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.85%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%EV +9.85%E +2.19%K +2.81%G +0.277% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.35%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.19%EV -6.95%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.45%EV +9.85%E +2.19%K +2.81%G +0.277% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.35%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.19%EV -6.95%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV +6.18%E +1.42%K +1.85%G +0.114% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.45%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -8.26%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV +4.96%E +1.15%K +1.50%G +0.075% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV +4.96%E +1.15%K +1.50%G +0.075% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV +4.96%E +1.15%K +1.50%G +0.075% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV +4.96%E +1.15%K +1.50%G +0.075% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 15:13 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV +0.081%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.39%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -13.51%E -4.09%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV +0.081%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.53%EV -11.61%E -6.49%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -13.51%E -4.09%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV +0.081%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.53%EV -11.61%E -6.49%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -13.51%E -4.09%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV +0.081%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.53%EV -11.61%E -6.49%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -13.51%E -4.09%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV +0.081%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.60%EV -12.60%E -7.12%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -14.82%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.31%EV -0.163%E -0.040%K -0.053%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.43%EV -6.67%E -3.53%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.26%EV -4.86%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 16:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.33%EV -0.651%E -0.160%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.51%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.16%EV -4.86%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-09 10:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-08 01:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-07 02:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.41%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.95%E -1.96%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 16:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -13.59%E -7.76%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -14.82%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -13.59%E -7.76%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -14.82%E -4.56%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.53%EV -3.82%E -0.971%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.34%EV -7.74%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 12:08 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.87%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 13:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -9.57%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 13:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -9.57%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 13:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -9.57%E -2.78%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 14:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 13:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.89%EV -5.19%E -2.70%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-08 22:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 06:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 06:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 21:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 21:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 21:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 21:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.26%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-07 20:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 12:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 23.98%EV -8.95%E -2.40%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.70%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.31%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-07 20:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.71%E -1.90%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -3.02%E -0.817%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-08 22:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -3.71%E -1.90%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-07 09:08 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -3.71%E -1.90%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-07 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -10.90%E -2.99%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.19%E -2.70%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-08 08:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -10.90%E -2.99%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.19%E -2.70%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-08 08:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.71%E -1.90%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-07 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.71%E -1.90%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-07 09:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -8.26%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-07 02:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-08 22:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -3.02%E -0.817%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-07 11:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.26%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-08 22:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 17:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -5.64%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-08 08:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -8.26%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.16%EV -10.62%E -5.87%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -8.26%E -2.36%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-06 17:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -15.79%E -4.58%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.42%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -13.51%E -4.09%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-07 18:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -17.01%E -5.00%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.22%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.89%E -3.20%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-07 02:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -19.45%E -5.89%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.20%EV -8.15%E -4.38%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -12.20%E -3.64%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-07 02:04 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.57% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53% | 10.1% | 2026-09-09 12:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.87% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22% | 13.0% | 2026-09-09 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 21.86% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 56.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 21.86% | 32.6% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 21.86% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 56.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 21.86% | 32.6% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 18.81% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 62.39% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 18.81% | 54.1% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |