Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent v Anderlecht

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 11:30 UTC

Final: Gent 1–1 Anderlecht

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gent (Local)

Prediction 41.42%2.41fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.65%41.45%41.47%42.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.232.252.3350.00%44.82%44.44%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anderlecht (Visit)

Prediction 31.50%3.18fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.351%
Kelly -0.516%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.42%31.50%31.45%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.952.953.1437.04%33.88%33.90%31.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.08%3.69fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.697%
Kelly -0.965%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.79%27.05%27.09%28.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.423.453.6034.72%29.25%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gent (Local): 41.42%; Anderlecht (Visit): 31.50%; Draw: 27.08%. For Anderlecht (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.14, with an expected value of -1.10%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.57%EV -3.48%E -1.50%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.84%EV -1.10%E -0.351%K -0.516%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.59%EV -4.95%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 01:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.53%EV -3.48%E -1.50%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -2.36%E -0.762%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 17:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.53%EV -3.48%E -1.50%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -2.36%E -0.762%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 17:19
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.51%EV -4.73%E -2.05%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.90%EV -2.68%E -0.867%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.59%EV -6.30%E -1.82%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-10 02:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -4.73%E -2.05%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.57%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 13:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -4.73%E -2.05%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 16:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -4.73%E -2.05%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 16:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.73%E -2.05%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -6.57%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 13:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.68%EV -5.55%E -2.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 13:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.68%EV -5.55%E -2.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 13:44
Suprabets🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.36%EV -6.38%E -2.82%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.99%EV -9.55%E -2.86%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 23:39
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.51%E -0.697%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 23:48
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -2.51%E -0.697%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 23:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 23:49
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 22:14
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 00:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 00:29
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.57%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 13:44
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.57%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 13:44
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.57%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 13:45
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.57%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.57%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 23:49
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 23:54
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 23:54
BetAnything🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 23:49
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.28%E -2.77%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 23:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.91%EV -4.88%E -1.62%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -8.47%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 02:25
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 23:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.97%EV -7.11%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 23:31
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 13:59
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 14:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 14:04
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -7.63%E -3.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:45
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -7.63%E -3.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:44
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.68%EV -7.63%E -3.42%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:44
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.51%E -0.697%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 14:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -2.51%E -0.697%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 14:29
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -2.51%E -0.697%K -0.965%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 14:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 14:29
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -9.29%E -3.23%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 14:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 13:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 13:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -11.81%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -6.57%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 11:10
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.99%E -3.69%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-10 00:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -8.87%E -4.03%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -13.39%E -4.87%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -9.28%E -2.77%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-09 11:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.62%EV -9.70%E -4.45%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -9.28%E -2.77%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 13:44
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.03%EV -10.11%E -4.66%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.57%EV -11.18%E -3.97%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -11.99%E -3.69%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-10 01:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.59%EV -10.53%E -4.87%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.19%EV -9.29%E -3.23%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.59%EV -10.53%E -4.87%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.19%EV -9.29%E -3.23%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 17:19
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -10.94%E -5.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -11.81%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -5.22%E -1.49%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-09 14:29
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -10.94%E -5.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.29%E -3.23%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 13:37
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -10.94%E -5.09%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.81%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-09 14:30
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -13.01%E -6.20%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -13.39%E -4.87%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-09 14:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.06%EV -17.15%E -8.58%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.42%EV -14.96%E -5.54%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.52%EV -22.01%E -7.64%K -11.71%G +0.000%21.8%2026-05-09 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 42.02%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.96%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.03%0.0%2026-05-10 01:20
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-05-10 00:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.79%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%1.4%2026-05-10 02:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.79%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%1.4%2026-05-10 02:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.79%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%1.4%2026-05-10 02:15
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 41.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.81%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%3.1%2026-05-10 02:55